Niger: a good coup?

AFRICA does not need any coup de tats any more. In fact the African Union has taken a clear and an unequivocal stance against any coups whatever their avowed justification.

According to the continental body, coups are now a political anachronism. They are now a thing of the past and should no longer be entertained in the sub-planet’s political discourse.

Yet in spite of all the rhetoric about the continent having moved on into a new democratic dispensation, it is common cause that Africa is by far lagging behind other continents when it comes to its democratic credentials.

It is indeed fair to further argue that in spite of the hullabaloo of Africa now having a new breed of leaders, it is the geriatric type of life-long strongmen that still dominate the continental political landscape.

Indeed from the uppermost northward parts of Africa where there is Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and Hosni Mubarak in Egypt, down southwards to the likes of Eduardo dos Santos in Angola and Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe, it is very evident that the continent is still struggling to get rid of most of its notorious strongmen.

To make matter worse, it is also evident that the longer a leader stays in power in Africa, the more likely that they are going to close down the democratic space in the country to ensure their sustainable overstay in power.

What is even more frightening is the fact that in all these countries, elections have long been discredited as a morally acceptable form of democratic engagement. Even though regular elections are held in these countries, it is now common cause that they are all an affront to the very concept of electoral enfranchisement.

The cases of South Africa, Ghana and Botswana, among others, are good reminders that not all hope is lost in Africa. But these are by far in the minority to say the least.

This has put Africa between a rock and a hard place. Does the African leadership stick to its moralist stance and unconditionally condemn the successful coup leaders and at the same time call for the restoration of the deposed civilian leader?

Worse still, just a few months ago, an official report from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) that was tacitly endorsed by the African Union clearly suggested some rare disquiet at the increasingly unbecoming behaviour of the now deposed President Mamadou Tandja.

He had increasingly become more paranoid and despotic and thus proving to be a nonsensical fly in the ointment of the western Africa regional progress in terms of its fledging democratic credentials as mainly represented by the successful conduct of the recent elections in Ghana.

As such, when the coup was conducted, it was at a time when Niger’s future as a credible democracy was definitely under some serious threat. Clearly something needed to be done in order to stop the country from inevitably descending into the abyss of political tyranny.

And since the electoral process in that country had long lost any semblance of credibility as a democratic option available to the long suffering masses, another more pragmatic solution needed to be found urgently. This then clearly appears to be the only available justification of Africa’s latest coup that sadly, will by no means be the last one.

According to a BBC news analysis, the clutch of officers who seized power have named themselves the Supreme Council for the Restoration of Democracy (CSRD).

Many Nigeriens, particularly supporters of the opposition, will be hoping that the new regime lives up to its name and rapidly makes arrangements for a transition back to genuine political pluralism. The increasingly autocratic style of Tandja, was widely resented.

Last August’s referendum vote, which abolished term limits, allowing him to prolong his stay in office, was certainly questionable, with opponents claiming the true turnout may have been as low as 5%.

Political efforts to derail the increasing concentration of power in Tandja’s hands had failed.

When the Parliament and the Supreme Court stood in his way, he shut them down and organised the election of a more compliant national assembly in questionable polls that were not recognised by the ECOWAS.

Mohamed Ibn Chambas, the outgoing president of the regional bloc, saw Tandja as a threat to West African democracy and submitted evidence against Niger when the European Union was deciding whether to continue aid to Niamey.

This is the unsettled context facing ECOWAS and the African Union, which has suspended Niger, as they attempt to draw the new military rulers into talks over the rapid re-establishment of constitutional democratic rule.

Arguably, the AU’s suspension means little, given the sanctions Niger already faces because of Tandja.

The AU has form in this. Other AU countries suspended for unseating power unconstitutionally, such the Central African Republic after Francoise Bozize’s coup, were allowed back into the fold after holding elections to restore constitutional rule.

There are West African precedents, notably in Mali, for a "good soldiers’" pro-democracy coup. But Niger’s new CSRD regime has yet to show whether it really intends to pursue such a path.

And the country’s unsettled recent history suggests that turning such good intentions into a national consensus around the route forward could prove difficult.

Daniel Molokele

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