THE United States believes Morgan Tsvangirai is “by and large a democrat”, but its former ambassador to Zimbabwe also found him to be “a flawed figure, not readily open to advice, indecisive and with questionable judgment”, according to a leaked secret cable published by Wikileaks.
In a candid appraisal which former ambassador Christopher Dell classified in 2007, he said the MDC leader was “an indispensable element for opposition success … but possibly an albatross around their necks once in power”.
“In short, he is a kind of Lech Walesa character: Zimbabwe needs him, but should not rely on his executive abilities to lead the country's recovery,” ambassador Dell wrote in the cable – just one of close to 250,000 secret files from United States embassies around the world which Wikileaks started putting online over the weekend.
The leaks have caused massive embarrassment in Washington, and Dell’s comparison of Tsvangirai to Walesa – a Polish trade unionist who came to power after years of being persecuted by the communist government only to see his popularity rapidly wane before his eventual defeat in elections – will anger the Prime Minister’s aides.
Dell describes a 2005 split in the MDC as “a totally unnecessary self-inflicted wound”, and appears to apportion most of the blame on one of its founding leaders, Welshman Ncube.
Ncube, Dell said in his cable, had “proven to be a deeply divisive and destructive player in the opposition ranks”.
“The sooner he is pushed off the stage, the better,” the diplomat said of Ncube, now a key figure of the rival MDC faction led by Arthur Mutambara.
Dell however observed that Ncube was a formidable obstacle, not least he said, because he was “useful to many, including the regime [Mugabe’s] and South Africa”.
“So he is probably a cross to be borne for some time yet,” Dell said.
Whereas Tsvangirai was also a "brave, committed man ... with real star quality and the ability to rally the masses", Dell said talent was “thin below the top ranks” of opposition politics. He singled out Tendai Biti and Nelson Chamisa as leaders of promise.
“Arthur Mutambara is young and ambitious, attracted to radical, anti-western rhetoric and smart as a whip,” Dell wrote. “But, in many respects he’s a light-weight who has spent too much time reading U.S. campaign messaging manuals and too little thinking about the real issues.”
The former US envoy, once told by President Robert Mugabe to “go to hell”, said he thought Zimbabwe’s future leaders were in the Diaspora.
“The great saving grace of the opposition is likely to be found in the Diaspora. Most of Zimbabwe’s best professionals, entrepreneurs, businessmen and women have fled the country. They are the opposition’s natural allies and it is encouraging to see signs, particularly in South Africa and the UK, that these people are talking, sharing ideas, developing plans and thinking together about future recovery.”
Dell’s cable, mainly an attack on President Mugabe’s record, will be read with concern by opposition leaders, not least because of its overall tone which shows the United States as a driver of the opposition.
He agitates for the United States to "step up preparations" for a post-Mugabe era.
"Zimbabwe’s opposition is far from ideal and I leave convinced that had we had different partners, we could have achieved more already," wrote Dell. "But you have to play the hand you’re dealt. With that in mind, the current leadership has little executive experience and will require massive hand holding and assistance should they ever come to power.
"We need to keep the pressure on in order to keep Mugabe off his game and on his back foot, relying on his own shortcomings to do him in."
He dismissed Britain as "ham-strung by its colonial past and domestic politics", adding: "Letting them set the pace alone merely limits our effectiveness."
The EU, he said, is "divided between the hard north and its soft southern underbelly".
He added: "The Africans are only now beginning to find their voice. Rock solid partners like Australia don’t pack enough punch to step out front and the UN is a non-player. Thus it falls to the United States, once again, to take the lead, to say and do the hard things and to set the agenda."