Zimbabwe: an undeliverable atomic promise

• On nuclear energy and municipal solid waste

• Mugabe goes nuclear after uranium discovery

• US pressures China on Zimbabwe

• Mugabe's tiger diplomacy with China

• Mugabe visits old pal Castro

• China in Mugabe financial rescue

• Mugabe gets Chinese honorary professorship

• Mugabe goes begging in China

• SA approves US$1bn credit line for Zim

• Zimbabwe faces economic meltdown

• South Africa busts Zimbabwe arms sanctions

• Chinese technology for Mugabe's spies

• Air Zimbabwe buys 2 Chinese aircraft

• Mugabe splashes in six Chinese fighter jets

• Chinese radar, anti-air missiles for Mugabe

• Mugabe wants Zimbabweans to learn Chinese

• Mugabe hails China

• Mugabe looks to China

• Parliament seeks clarity on China jets

• Mugabe spends US$200m on new jets

• Mugabe rolls out red carpet for Iranian leader

• Iran to build gas power plant in Zimbabwe

President Robert Mugabe shocked the world at the weekend when he announced Zimbabwe had discovered deposits of uranium, saying the country would move to explore possibilities of turning to nuclear energy. Many have wondered if indeed Zimbabwe has the capacity and financial resources for such a project. The answer is NO -- and that comes from Stratfor -- an American based intelligence organisation

Summary

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe said Nov. 19 that his nation would use newly discovered uranium deposits to produce nuclear power, adding that the government has no intention of producing nuclear weapons. While Mugabe likely meant to stir nationalist sentiment with his announcement, as well as gain some international attention, Zimbabwe lacks the technology needed for the uranium discovery to change its political or economic situation.

Analysis

Zimbabwe will use its newly discovered deposits of uranium to produce nuclear energy to meet its energy shortfall, Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe told state radio Nov. 19. Small deposits of uranium are known to exist in northern Zimbabwe, though the deposits are not thought large enough to sustain profitable mining operations.

Mugabe's announcement represents little more than an attempt to rally his people around the idea that their country is significant enough to join the ranks of nations possessing nuclear power. Mugabe can thereby foment a sense of nationalism while projecting the image that Zimbabwe's economic and energy problems represent short-term issues with impending solutions. The prerequisites for nuclear energy, however, indicate that Zimbabwe will not possess nuclear power -- or weapons -- any time soon.

Energy supply constitutes a growing concern for Zimbabweans given the southern African nation's economic environment. The lack of a stable energy infrastructure in rural areas also represents a continuing concern. Zimbabwe requires just over 2,100 megawatts of power but currently falls between 400 and 500 megawatts short of that requirement, leading to almost-daily shortages and blackouts in many areas of the country.

Moreover, rampant hyperinflation -- standing at 411 percent in October -- and a dearth of incoming foreign currency has meant Zimbabwe does not have the currency to pay South Africa, Mozambique and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) for the power it consumes, creating more instability for Mugabe and his ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front.

A small nuclear reactor could produce more than enough energy for Zimbabwe's energy needs, but near-term nuclear power production in Zimbabwe is not possible, even though the specifics of Mugabe's nuclear energy plan remain unclear. Nuclear energy production requires several key components: The first is a supply of nuclear material, such as uranium. This may prove to be the easiest requirement to meet, since Zimbabwe has plenty of unemployed laborers available to extract the materials. On the other hand, this extraction may not prove economical, depending upon the amount of uranium in the mines.

The second requirement is nuclear reactor technology. While Harare maintains good relations with several countries possessing a nuclear capability, the transfer of that technology would prove very difficult. The United States, European Union and others would strongly oppose any such deal, and would exert significant political and economic pressure to dissuade any nation from making such a transfer. Mugabe's long track record of seeking nuclear materials, both for power production and nuclear weapons, will make other nations more wary of allowing Mugabe to obtain any type of nuclear technology. Rumors have circulated since the mid-1990s that Mugabe sought nuclear weapons technology from North Korea. Later, Mugabe sent troops into the DRC in support of former President Laurent Kabila and, in exchange, sought to obtain uranium from the DRC's Shinkolobwe mine. As recently as early 2000, the Zimbabwean government engaged in talks for the acquisition of a nuclear reactor from Argentina for the production of electricity.

Third, even if Harare were able to acquire the necessary technological expertise, it would still need the capital to actualize its plan. Zimbabwe -- already in a financial mess of gigantic proportions -- has proved itself a less-than-worthy borrower, and thus likely would not be able to obtain the funds needed for the construction of nuclear facilities.

The production of energy also requires initial energy inputs, with nuclear energy in particular involving a power-intensive process for the conversion and enrichment of raw uranium into a form usable in a power reactor. For a country already experiencing power shortages, a new nuclear reactor hardly seems feasible.

As Zimbabwe's economy continues to deteriorate to an almost medieval level -- and with current policies not offering much hope of halting the decline -- Mugabe is grabbing at straws to maintain some level of legitimacy with the people. While the idea of Zimbabwean nuclear energy or weapons will surely grab attention both domestically and abroad, Zimbabwe will eventually find himself forced to face the consequences of yet another failed promise.
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