Outright Tsvangirai or Mugabe victory unlikely

Outright Tsvangirai or Mugabe victory unlikely - Moyo

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By Lindie Whiz

ZIMBABWE’S presidential election race will likely be decided by a second round of voting, analysts predicted Tuesday as the country entered a fourth day after polling without official results being announced.

Zimbabwean law requires that a winner of a presidential election must garner at least 51 percent of the total vote.

The opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) has claimed that its leader Morgan Tsvangirai leads President Robert Mugabe by a wide margin, accusing authorities of withholding results in order to tweak the numbers.

Professor Jonathan Moyo, a former Information Minister in Mugabe’s government who this week became the first independent candidate in the country’s history to be re-elected to parliament, said the tight parliamentary election race between Zanu PF and MDC candidates bore the signs of a close presidential race which might not yield an outright winner.

“It’s a very close race, and the result will be equally close,” Moyo, a political scientist and MP for Tsholotsho said. “The fact many did not foresee before this election is that Tsvangirai has made significant inroads in traditional Zanu PF strongholds. The national mood is clearly with him, but whether or not that translates to victory depends on how Mugabe plays the power of incumbency.”

Talking on Election Day, Mugabe was upbeat he would win the election outright. “We are not used to boxing matches where one goes from round one to round two,” Mugabe said. “We just knock each other out.”

Moyo believes "there is still an outside chance that either Tsvangirai or Mugabe can win it, but that's very unlikely".

Members of Zimbabwe’s security forces have said they will not salute “puppets”, a term used to refer to Tsvangirai and independent presidential candidate and Zanu PF defector, Simba Makoni.

Moyo believes that if Mugabe loses the ballot, it is unlikely the army and police will defy voters by safeguarding his power.

He said: “The unfortunate statements by security forces that they will not salute a new leader should not be taken seriously, because if taken seriously, then there would be no need to hold elections.

“The military is professional, and for that reason they should be prepared to accept the legal outcome of elections, and I believe the Zimbabwe military is not an exception.

“For the same reason, anyone who wins legal elections would be expected not to be retributive for any reason, not least because the military is for everyone, and needs to be protected and respected by everyone.”

Makoni’s camp has indicated backing Tsvangirai in the event of a run-off “would be an automatic”.
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