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Zim could be on verge of 'failed transition' - Kagoro
By
Vusa Tshabangu
A LEADING Zimbabwean political commentator today warns that if the opposition
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) does not show “proper leadership”,
the country could be on the verge of a “failed transition”.
Brian Kagoro, a human rights lawyer, told reporters at a press club in Harare that with President Robert Mugabe on the ropes after his party was defeated in parliament, he could still spring to life and dash all hopes of a change of government if the MDC fails to manage the transition.
Kagoro said: “We had a ruling party not prepared to lose and an opposition not entirely prepared to win. There is a temptation in the opposition to enter into endless celebration now.
“Others are already imagining themselves as ministers or holding important positions in government. This would be a big mistake for the MDC.
“There is now an expectation for the opposition forces to move from opposition to proposition. Without a proper leadership, there will be no change. We are on the verge of either a proper transition or a failed transition.”
With the MDC already having a majority in parliament, Kagoro said it should now behave like a party in power. That entails forming alliances with groups and individuals that it previously opposed, he said.
He added: “The MDC should now take a conciliatory approach and work with everyone, including those who were opposed to them. Deciding to go it alone could be suicidal.”
There remained fears on Thursday that President Mugabe may yet declare a state of emergency, which would allow him to postpone an expected second round of voting in presidential elections by up to 90 days, instead of the 21 days stipulated by law.
State media has already conceded neither Mugabe nor opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai got more than 50 percent of the vote to win outright, and a run-off is now necessary.
Kagoro said Mugabe wanted to buy time to regroup, rearm and defend his 28-year rule.
He added: "We are likely to see an announcement that we require a little bit more time, more than (the required) 21 days, to go into the rerun.
"Even if you deploy war veterans and other forms of militia in the rural areas, it is impossible within 21 days to turn around what we saw as the new tsunami in the rural sector.”
Former information minister Professor Jonathan Moyo warned that Mugabe could trigger a “Kenyan-type of scenario” if he delayed the second round of voting.
"Those in government must understand that it is those kinds of things that precipitated the Kenyan type of scenario. You can't change the rules of the game while the game is being played,” Moyo said.
Kagoro said Mugabe might call for the assistance of war veterans, who terrorised the country in the 2000 and 2002 elections and ensured a Zanu PF victory.
"I believe we are likely to see war veterans re-emerging. I am not persuaded that terror won't be reintroduced, whether covert or overt," Kagoro said.
But Moyo said the veterans were also shaken by the people's will.
"War veterans are human beings. Now they are terrified."
Kagoro cautioned that any solution would have to accommodate security forces.
"The security personnel are powerful there is a need to reach out to (them)," he said
Moyo said there was also anxiety among security chiefs.
"If you have
a situation where the party that has won continues to make statements
that sound (irresponsible) then that gives rise to unnecessary anxiety
within the security forces and those anxieties need to be managed,"
he said.
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