Interview Part 1: Masamvu, Prof Stanford Mukasa

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SW Radio Africa's Violet Gonda talks with Sydney Masamvu, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group in South Africa and the political commentator Professor Stanford Mukasa in the USA. This is the Part 1 of the full transcript of the interview for the Hot Seat programme:

Broadcast on Tuesday, November 27, 2006

Violet Gonda: The Zimbabwe Crisis has been dragging on for so long there’s a fear that donor fatigue is creeping in. The International Community also appears to be getting fed up with Zimbabwe because of an alleged lack of urgency or anger from the masses. Is the International Community toning down on Zimbabwe? Is the Diplomatic Community, especially in the West, looking for opportunities of reforming Zanu PF? Is the opposition dead and buried? I discussed these issues on the programme Hot Seat with Sydney Masamvu, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group in South Africa and political commentator Professor Stanford Mukasa in the USA.

I will start with Sydney Masamvu. What is the current position of the International Community on resolving the situation in Zimbabwe?

Sydney Masamvu: Really Violet if one takes an audit in the past six years of the trend, really it is quite correct to conclude that the enthusiasm of the position which Zimbabwe was regarded in the period leading to 1999, 2000, 2001 and up to 2002, compared to 2006, in terms of international attention obviously Zimbabwe has fallen off the ladder, as it were. Not really out of the world spotlight, but in terms of priority. If you look at areas like Sudan – the Darfur crisis, you look at the Democratic Republic of Congo, and indeed you look at problems in Iraq and Afghanistan. All that has really captured the world’s attention, putting Zimbabwe down the rung, as it were. Really this has complicated the situation in terms of the resolve to push for reform and democratic change in Zimbabwe.

Violet: Now Professor Mukasa do you agree with this? Is the International Community really toning down on Zimbabwe? And, is it also because, as Sydney has said that, it seems they have other priorities and there are more issues, or more serious issues that are happening in other countries, like in Dafur, Sudan?

Stanford Mukasa: Yes, I agree. I think Zimbabwe is, there’s a loss of focus now on Zimbabwe and I think the feelings are right now that the region, the Southern African region; SADC in particular and the African Union in general, they don’t seem to be very serious about Zimbabwe. They have traditionally been very supportive of Mugabe. They don’t seem to be moving as fast as one would expect them to, you know to redress the situation there. So the question now is, well if SADC or the African Union don’t appear to look at Zimbabwean situation as a very urgent matter why should the International Community do that, and, for that reason attention is now turning to other more pressing issues like Iraq and the Dafur region and so on. I don’t know whether one should blame the International Community for that, because if SADC and the African Union, who are supposed to be on the forefront in resolving the situation in Zimbabwe, are dragging their feet or are just treating Zimbabwe like a normal situation, then the question now is why should everyone else care.

Violet: But then again, it’s said that SADC and the African Union are not the only ones dragging their feet because you know it’s been said that the Zimbabwean crisis has been dragging on for far too long and there’s now growing donor fatigue and that the International Community is getting fed up with Zimbabweans. There seems to be no sense of urgency or anger from the masses. Would you agree with this also?

Sydney Musamvu: Ah, just maybe to step in there. When we try to factor in the role of the International Community in so far as solving the Zimbabwe crisis is concerned, when we try to factor in SADC, when we try to factor in the African Union in resolving the Zimbabwe crisis, all those three are external actors as it were. We are sort of scrutinising their role. What we should ask ourselves, we Zimbabweans, who is supposed to do the heavy lifting? And, the bottom line is, to resolve the Zimbabwe crisis, all those three actors; the AU, the SADC, the International Community, the West; whoever is sympathetic to push for democratic change in Zimbabwe can only do so much. Zimbabweans, at the end of the day, should do the heavy lifting.

Indeed we should acknowledge that really the civil society and the democratic opposition party inside Zimbabwe have done a lot in the past six years. It seems the momentum is falling off. But at the end of the day, Violet, Zimbabweans, suffering under an economic meltdown which has gone for the past six/seven years, should do the heavy lifting. SADC, African Union and the International Community should come in as the accompanying actors, but the heavy lifting should start on the domestic front. And, with due respect, the heavy lifting has been done, but, it’s not good enough.

Violet: That’s what I wanted to ask you Sydney again, that why is it that Zimbabweans are failing to do the heavy lifting as you call it?

Sydney Musamvu: If you look at the mood that was in Zimbabwe in 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, and I happened to be part of that flow as well, you could see there was an air of expectation. I mean people really fighting for change, people sacrificing their lives, people really pushing for change in numbers, really in practice. And you can see, over the passage of time and failure to achieve the objective of removing the Mugabe regime, there has been a sort of drift, lethargy and an element of doubt from the Zimbabwean population, about maybe the capacity of the opposition about would they even walk the walk to the last mile or maybe it was just that they are a forerunner, there still needs to be a reconfiguration of the opposition forces to push the Mugabe regime out of power. So really, we have reached a point whereby after six years, as we take an audit and with all the gallant work which has been done by the opposition forces in Zimbabwe, do they have what it takes to takes to take this revolution to the next stage of removing Mugabe from power? And that is the million dollar question.

Violet: Now, Professor Mukasa, it’s been said that the West will only help where there’s some sort of movement towards free and fair elections in Zimbabwe or if people go onto the streets. What is the capacity of Zimbabweans to force change in the country?

Stanford Mukasa: Ya, I tend to agree with Sydney. I think the expectation from the International Community was that the Zimbabwean people themselves would take the lead. It is normally accepted in really basic political science that when people are oppressed enough they will arise and protest. And, what’s happening now, from the perspective of the International Community, is why are Zimbabweans not feeling the pinch enough to be able to stand up and protest. The Zimbabwean people do have the capacity, let’s not have any doubts about that. They do have the capacity to stand up and protest in large numbers and they have shown it in previous occasions. You know, the demonstrations led by Madhuku and the WOZA women, even though they were few and scattered far in between, at least they have shown that they have that capacity.

So what the International Community is looking at now is maybe the need to organise this energy. There’s a great deal of anger among Zimbabweans and what is needed now is the energy to mobilise them towards a purposeful campaign against Mugabe. Now, they do have the capacity and I understand even Mugabe’s security chiefs have acknowledged that, properly organised, that pent-up energy and frustration and anger among Zimbabweans can be channelled into the streets in a very effective manner. One thing you will see is if Mugabe were to die today you would be surprised by the number of people who will take to the streets. So, the capacity is there and what is needed is to organise them.

So the focus now, the spotlight now would be turned onto the opposition movement. They are divided now. They have been promising hell on earth. They have been promising to go onto the streets, they have been promising to organise people into effective campaigns, but nothing has come through. We have heard, from time to time that there will be protests. We have heard, from time to time, that they are consulting their constituencies in the rural areas. We have heard, from time to time, that the people are now ready and consultations have taken place. But, at the end of the day nothing has come out at all. And, you know, every single statement that is made by the leaders of the opposition movement, you know, is monitored. You know if you promise something today that we are working on this, you know, people and the International Community is going to hold you accountable for that. They will want to see well, what happened to the promises that you made?

In the past three or four years you know, we have heard spokespersons for the opposition movement saying ‘well, we are now consulting our constituencies, we have discovered that elections do not seemed to help, we are doing this, and, our plans are now at an advanced stage, we are consulting our partners in the civic society leadership, we are starting a Broad Alliance and now we have started a Save Zimbabwe. We have had our Congress, the Congress now has given us a go-ahead.’ Now, all those things have been said you know. That had created an expectation that something would come out of it, but at the end of the day nothing has happened. And, that obviously raises questions as to whether the opposition leadership is able to make use of this capacity by the Zimbabweans to rise and protest against Mugabe.

Violet: Still on that issue Sydney, you know, on the issue of organising. Others believe the situation has not been made any better by the split or because of the split in the opposition. Do you agree that the MDC’s performance has been very disappointing as the opposition?

Sydney Musamvu: Well, you have to take various issues or various factors to what has contributed to this lethargy, which has set in within the opposition. Indeed, you cannot question their capacity to mobilise but also there’s also the issue of resources and the environment at large, the environment they are operating in is. But, notwithstanding that, it should be the time; the time has come, for a real introspection into the opposition forces. We are not just going to apportion blame to the MDC, but also one wants to look at what the MDC and civil society has done; all the opposition forces who are pushing for democracy in Zimbabwe. Time for an audit and introspection has come if really they are going to achieve a re-election or a goal of getting the Mugabe regime out.

You see, because their failure over a passage of time, obvious taking note that the repressive environment still exists, has got to a point where even other actors, and you know, in politics the world over the idea is to move forward look for opportunities. There are permanent interests in politics not permanent positions. No wonder why this has brought in the idea of people beginning to question or to take note of what is happening in ZANU PF; this debate about the succession, who is going to succeed Mugabe. That interest has reached a crescendo ahead of the Congress. You know, week in and week out, day in and day out, people are coming out with scenarios, plots and sub plots of what is happening in ZANU. It has become to take the imagination of the whole nation for the simple reason that there is nothing, which is happening, in the opposition camp.

You look at the year 2006, it has been a year of splitting and trying to reunite, full stop. That took the whole of the year of 2006 and as we approach 2007 we are talking of committees which are meeting to discuss the re-unification and as of the Constitution as it is of today, we are barely twelve months away from an election. And, against that background we are awaiting opposition unity. All these factors begin to drift people away and begin to look inside; inward looking. There has been a lot of talk, a lot of debate, formal and informal within the Diplomatic Community; what is happening within ZANU PF. Because, people are beginning to look at scenarios the opposition; reformed ZANU, these are now the terms coming through for the simple reason that in politics people look at permanent interests, not positions. And, I’m afraid to say the split within the opposition has not helped matters either against a background of a pending Presidential election in the offing within twelve months.

Stanford Mukasa: If I may jump in. It’s not necessarily a question of the environment and the resources that is stopping people from organising into a protest. In fact it’s the lack of resources and the environment that should make people want to protest. The environment is so bad, the resources are so lacking, and that should stimulate people to protest. The reason why people protest in other countries around the world is because of lack of resources, it’s because of oppression. So, the increased repression of Zimbabweans by Mugabe’s army, the continuing lack of resources, should be a function of protest, of mass protests.

Some people are saying that the investment promised by China, for example, might improve people’s lives to the extent that people might decide ‘well, things are better now, so there’s no reason to protest’. But at this point, the geo-political situation in the region as well as in the country, the increasing repression, those are the reasons, those should be the stimulant for protest. And, one question that many people are wondering as they look at the situation in Zimbabwe is ‘why are Zimbabweans not angry enough, why are Zimbabweans not enraged enough to take to the streets’?

Mugabe has done so many things that are so outrageous that in any other situation people would revolt, would protest. I mean I can go over quite a number of things that people have done which are simply unacceptable, that should have galvanised people. As a matter of fact, somebody was just telling me that actually Mugabe is the best organiser for the opposition by the very things that he does. And, someone was also telling me that we don’t have to look to the civil society leaders to organise the people, people themselves should feel the pinch enough themselves to take to the streets. You know, they were looking for what one would call a spontaneous uprising where people do not have to sit down and wait for the leadership to tell them when to go to the streets, when to protest. They should feel the pinch themselves to protest and there are many examples that have been cited about situations in other countries where people have just taken to the streets…

Sydney: But you see…

Violet: Let me just ask Professor Mukasa a question, you know you said earlier Sydney that we need time now for an audit, and Professor Mukasa asks a crucial point that why is it that you have a country that is burning right now and yet Zimbabweans are not angry enough to take to the streets? But, I want to go back to the issue of leadership that we talked about, and the issue of organisation. What has really happened with the opposition especially as it has been said that there has not been any other opposition really in Africa that has received as much technical know how and support than the MDC in Zimbabwe? Professor Mukasa:

Professor Mukasa: Well again, it takes us back to the motives of the opposition itself. I mean to what extent is the opposition prepared to take that step? It’s one thing to make rhetoric; it’s one thing to stand up at a rally and say we are going to do one, two, three, four. It’s another thing to actually go to the streets. You know, I always talk about Lovemore Madhuku (NCA) and the WOZA women, I think they are sending messages to the Zimbabweans that you don’t have to wait for someone to make up his or her mind whether people should protest or not. The situation is tough enough and the people should go to the streets. Yes, MDC has received a lot of support, the leadership or let’s say the civic society without mentioning one party or another, because a lot of support has poured into the civic society movement in Zimbabwe in the hope that this would give them at least the basic technical support as you call it, to carry out their campaign. But, things seem to have fizzled out.

We have seen rallies attended by thousands of people but why not convert, transform those rallies into protest marches. Why not on one day at Harare stadium, with thousands of people, and say ‘well after this meeting we are all going to march onto the streets’. Instead of saying to people ‘OK, this is now the end of the rally, you can go to your homes now’. Why not say ‘OK, we know now what the problem is, we know that we are responsible for redressing this problem because we are the ones who feel the pinch, so why not, as we leave from these gates’.

It used to happen, by the way, back in the 1960’s during the ZAPU / ZANU conflict. What would happen during those days was after a rally people didn’t go home. That rally was the starting point you know. People would from the rally be charged with anger; with the desire to protest that from there unfortunately they went protesting and destroying their own property in the so called ‘Locations’ as they were called at that time. But, why not use the rally as the launching pad you know, for the protest movement? Why shouldn’t the civil society, the opposition movement leadership say that, where you’ve got twelve thousand people in attendance? I mean that’s a golden opportunity to tell the people that ‘you are not going home today. We are going to the State House. We are going to the streets’. You know, why not do that?

So, yes, to answer your question, yes, they have received a lot of support, and, perhaps that accounts for what is known as donor fatigue now because they are wondering ‘well, all that support we have given them, they have received a great deal of international attention’. And the question is, what dividend has this paid at the end of the day? Things just seem to fizzle out. People are being put through what I call emotional roller coasters. One time at a large rally you have people, politicians making all these speeches, you know, highly charged speeches and then the next day life returns to normal. Well, by normal in Zimbabwe, I mean the normal oppression that goes on. So on one hand people’s hopes are very high. At Rallies, people are singing, people are chanting, people are saying ‘yes we must do something’. The following day, it’s back to normal.

Violet: I’m afraid we have run out of time but this discussion with Sydney Masamvu from the International Crisis Group and political commentator Professor Stanford Mukasa will continue next week. Among other issues we will ask has there been a consideration among the International Community to support moderates inside Zanu PF. If this is the case, does this meant that the International Community doesn’t have time and energy to invest in the Zimbabwe democratic enterprise and what can we realistically expect from the International Community in forcing changes in Zimbabwe. Join us next Tuesday.

Audio interview can be heard on SW Radio Africa’s Hot Seat programme. Comments and feedback can be emailed to violet@swradioafrica.com

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