Interview Part 2: Masamvu, Prof Stanford Mukasa

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SW Radio Africa's Violet Gonda talks with Sydney Masamvu, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group in South Africa and the political commentator Professor Stanford Mukasa in the USA. This is the Part 2 of the full transcript of the interview for the Hot Seat programme:

Broadcast on Tuesday, December 5, 2006

Violet Gonda: Welcome to the second segment of a 3-part teleconference with Sydney Masamvu - a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group and also with political commentator Professor Stanford Mukasa.

It’s been said the tragedy of Zimbabwe’s opposition movement has largely been its failure to use the opportunities created by the faction fighting in the ruling Zanu PF Party. Critics say there are efforts among the international community to support moderates in Zanu PF because of this lack of strategy within the opposition movement, but can Zanu PF change?

I first asked Sydney Masamvu why observers feel there is a lack of energy in the opposition movement?

Sydney Musamvu: You see we are looking at a situation whereby all the social indicators in Zimbabwe are in the negative and one would want to assume, under such circumstances, that’s a fertile ground for any protest. But, also what I’m trying to look at is we should also look beyond protest. Look at multiple platforms of ventilating the mis-governance in Zimbabwe. So really you are looking at, apart from protest what strategies has the opposition movement in Zimbabwe come up with aimed at pushing and keeping the pressure on the Mugabe regime?

I want to believe that in the past year or two there’s been sort of a lack of momentum and partly because of the structural differences emanating from the opposition. One thing Violet that you should give to Zanu PF is - the Zanu PF leadership- is it takes risks; and most of the time for the worst, they do take the risk. You know if you look at the issue of land, how it was done; Zanu PF take risks. And, for the best or for the worst, President Robert Mugabe takes decisions. You see, in politics, first of all you take a risk and you have to make a decision, you take a decision. That’s the art of leadership. You take a decision, you take a risk.

Violet: What risks do you think the MDC should be taking right now?

Sydney: What I’m trying to say is it’s actually very clear that, from experience, you know, over the past two years, you have seen experience taking more of the lead. The MDC has been beaten more out of experience by Zanu PF than anything else. If you look at the leadership in Zanu PF and what they have been doing whatever, it has been more of the MDC, and I want to take that as a clear example, has been outwitted more out of lack of experience by the ruling party. And, if you look at and missed opportunities, believe you me, if you went to the 2002 Presidential Election - how the vote was allegedly rigged; if you look at Murambatsvina where one would have seen it as a God sent opportunity, where even it touched the humanity of the world over, of the scale of the operation.

You know, that was a God sent opportunity for any political party to really take the battle to the doorstep of the government, because that operation it really cut across; there was social upheaval beyond the scale imaginable in Zimbabwe in post Independence Zimbabwe. They really missed the opportunity. You can count three or four missed opportunities, which really the opposition forces in Zimbabwe would have seized the chance to really harness people’s energy and focus towards piling pressure on the regime. So really one thing, which has shown in the past two, three years and more recently, now is the issue of experience really being a factor; political experience being a factor in how the MDC has led us.

Believe you me; I can go a step further. We talk day in day out of the camps in Zanu PF, the Mujuru camp, Manangagwa, whatever, who is doing what, Mugabe, about how Zanu PF will split. It is quite instructive when we talk about political experience, that besides all the glaring factions in Zanu PF; all the factional fights, Zanu PF has not split. The MDC, within six years, it has split on issues which I deem peripheral and minor compared to the problems in Zanu PF. Zanu PF, being a ruling party, where they have looted so much, where the differences run so deep they have got their past differences within the liberation struggle where they eliminated each other, right now we are reading about the ZISCO scandal around factional camps and lines. But the bottom line is we talk of factions. Factions which you talk about in the opposition but we don’t talk about a split in Zanu PF, really showing the art of experience of political leadership. I mean, when to draw a line over differences and when the common good of the party comes first.

And really, these are sort of lessons learnt in the past six years and which I think the future of the opposition in Zimbabwe lies in reconfiguration, taking some of the lessons learnt over the past six years. Or else, as usual, which happens in politics, the opposition forces in Zimbabwe can tend to be a forerunner and factors at play can change and any other new dispensation may occur which will put the Zimbabwe issue out of the International spotlight.

Violet: Now, Professor Mukasa, has there been a consideration among the International Community to support the moderates in Zanu PF since it’s been said that the opposition is failing to get its act together?

Professor Mukasa: Yes, the United States in particular has got what we call ‘options on Zimbabwe’. They’ve got Option One, Option Two, Option Three and Option Four. One option obviously is to support the opposition movement in the struggle for a process that will lead to free and fair elections. The other option is simply to do nothing and just to let things work themselves out; maybe; hopefully, either Mugabe’s death or economic factors will force changes. Then, another option is to look now at the factions within Zanu PF. Now, many people like to praise Zanu PF for not having a split and for being united.

Incidentally, Zanu PF is united for very different reasons. The reason they are united is simply because they are like thieves and each is watching over the other and this fear that if there is a split they will start squealing on each other and maybe fighting over the gravy train that they have amassed to themselves. Now, within Zanu PF there are what are known as moderate elements, and the idea for looking inside the moderate elements within Zanu PF, I think was precipitated by people like the late Edison Zvogbo. When Zvogbo came to the United States some years ago he had this proposal that moderate elements within Zanu PF could link up with the opposition movement and form a new political force.

Ever since then there has always been this view, this belief, that Zanu PF is just too big of a monster to just sweep away from the table; to remove from government that what you really need is maybe change from within Zanu PF to force a new dispensation for Zimbabwe. And, yes, that feeling is strong, and, as a matter of fact, right now as we speak, that idea of negotiating with the moderate elements within Zanu PF is still very much alive. It’s being revived, maybe at the cost of the opposition movement.

The idea here is ‘well, if the opposition movement cannot get its act together, cannot bring about changes, then, well, else can?’ Then, one looks at those moderate elements, and, there is a feeling right now that maybe what looks like unity within Zanu PF is really, may not last that long. I think that the Zanu PF house itself is burning; you know it’s a hot-house. And, some people might be finding the Zanu PF house too hot to stay in and they want out; they want to get out. And, the signals that have been received to the International Community was there are some elements within Zanu PF that want to get out because the situation is just too oppressive even for some of the factions within Zanu PF. Not everybody within Zanu PF is enjoying this gravy train.

Remember, the other time we heard that members of the Presidential Army Unit, an elite Unit, I heard that they were catching squirrels at the Botanical Gardens in order to survive. There was a soldier; I think it was in Kadoma, who was beaten because he could not pay his fare, his commuter bus fare. So, there is that feeling of uneasiness. There is that feeling, even among the Zanu PF factions that things are not going well for them. And I have a feeling right now, I cannot prove it, but I have a feeling that the so-called ex combatants also are now increasingly feeling being left out. That piece of land that had been seized and given to each of them, I think it is being retrieved right now. Mugabe has decided that well, giving land to everybody was not a good idea; rather he should give it to his cronies, the top officials and so on. So, the Zanu PF house is burning and so the option now, from the International Community perspective, may be we can reach out to those people inside Zanu PF.

Sydney Musamvu: I liked what the Professor was saying that the Zanu PF house is burning and the factions want to move out. But, one would ask, when they move out, they move out to where? You have an opposition which is divided. You have people who are in the ruling party and the house is burning, they need a house, they need a shelter. Where do they go? That is really like the tragedy of the split within the MDC, that even elements in Zanu PF, no matter how moderate, even if they want to get out they ask themselves before they get out ‘where are we going to?’

If we answer that and have a clear position of the status of the opposition then we can then work on saying the Zanu PF house is falling, it’s falling apart, some people are under, whatever. But at the end of the day they don’t have a home to go at the present moment, with the factions in the MDC more or less at each other’s throats fighting for the control of the name or anything. And even as the Rural Council elections will show, even fighting for the territory.

Violet: But Sydney what about the idea that the sentiments are that, the idea of a reformed Zanu PF is now a matter and subject of policy for some countries in the West?

Sydney Musamvu: I can tell you that indeed, the world over, and in the world of international diplomacy and politics, options are always there. And, there is a strong feeling that the opposition, as it is in disarray and there is a movement in Zanu PF, there are elections coming, there is a push for constitutional change, whatever, what opportunities can we look at within Zanu PF to bring about change, to expedite change. Who are the remnants within Zanu PF who can be worked with and they can push for change? And, indeed, I agree with what Mukasa was saying. That idea is beginning to gain currency and greater currency; of inward looking; that are there elements who can be retrieved within Zanu PF or, can Zanu PF be influenced from within to get some moderate people who can push the reform agenda forward?

And it’s really talk and this has been happening quite a lot. It has gripped the thinking and exploratory talks within the International Community. They are looking sort of decisively and looking quite clearly within Zanu PF to see if there are opportunities of
reforming the party. If they are there, are there elements within Zanu PF leadership who can push the struggle forward.

Violet, it is important in this regard to note that if you look in Africa; you look in Malawi, you look in Zambia, you look in Kenya, the opposition leadership in all those three countries which have actively come to power have in one way or the other been part of the ruling party. You look at people like Kibaki, they were former KANU. You look at Zambia; Mwanawasa. You look at Malawi, the Bingu Wa Mutharika’s. You can trace them formerly that they were with the ruling party and they branched out to an opposition party and came into power.

In this regard, one is looking at - had the opposition been united, being strong, it would have been a very good launching pad of influencing some people even within Zanu PF who can be retrieved to work in tandem with the regime, reconfigure the leadership in terms of having more people coming in within the opposition ranks and really galvanising and expanding its leadership base. So really what we are saying is this idea of inward looking within Zanu PF is beginning to cap the imagination of the thinking within the international community and the region, to say a reformed Zanu PF. For the simple reason that the opposition is in disarray.

Violet: But Sydney, which countries are actively pushing for this?

Sydney Musamvu: No Violet, it is quite sort of, you see, when you look at the texts within the European Union on Zimbabwe which are beginning to show with some countries trying to sort of say ‘how can we move forward with the issue of Zimbabwe’, you can also see, even with countries like the UK, you look at the US, people begin to have exploratory options or like beginning to view other options in the light of existing issues on the ground. You see the International Community is not static. It can not wait for ten years and it will move on with time and as events obtain on the ground and as the situation is in Zimbabwe the ball is more; the destiny of Zimbabwe, is more in the hands of Zanu PF than in the hands of the opposition if we are looking at the dynamics on the ground as of today. We are looking at the state of the opposition, we are looking at the political movement and political jostling within Zanu PF. You will see that there is likely more of a movement happening within the next twelve to eighteen months which can force Mugabe out if the opposition was united and pushing forward.

But, right now, Violet, we are in a situation where we have to debate when are the Committees of the MDC meeting to discuss the so-called re-unification arrangement. Whilst on the Zanu PF side, people are beginning to look at - is there an extension of another term, who is likely to succeed. You see the difference of issues? And, this is the same thinking which is involving around the world, to say what are the dynamics playing out in Zanu PF in terms of succession and leadership. Are there any characters who, if they come, if they come to lead Zanu PF, who can be influenced or leaned upon to push for democratic change in Zanu PF, and, if so, the international Community, like the rest of Zimbabweans; actually the majority of Zimbabweans, would want a progressive leader be it from Zanu PF or the MDC to come on, push for a democratic agenda and life goes on.

So really, for people to think, and for all of us Zimbabweans to think that as long as the International Community is making noise on our behalf the ball is still in our hands, it’s being foolhardy. Politics move with time and positions. There are permanent interests not positions. So, the situation in Zimbabwe is fluid. If tomorrow in Zimbabwe there comes a leader who can make radical policy changes; whether he’s coming from Zanu PF or from any other party or from the Civil Society, the world would take note and say ‘let’s give him or her the benefit of the doubt’.

Violet: Now Professor Mukasa, let me ask, still on that issue, that it appears that Robert Mugabe is making attempts to end the isolation within the International Community and he tried to get Mkapa to broker talks or to build bridges and recently you had the Church’s National Vision Document, which was allegedly doctored. And so, is this a sign that Mugabe is trying to end the isolation, the international isolation?

Professor Mukasa: You see Mugabe has nothing to lose any more. He is now 83 years old. He is the firebrand, die-hard nationalist. His years belong to the 1960’s and that will always be part of his character right up to his death. Now his response, his reaction, his interaction with the International Community on the question of mediation reflect that he doesn’t really care that much. I would dare say that Mugabe, right now is incapable of reaching an accommodation in a process that will lead to the democratisation of Zimbabwe. Mugabe is what he is and people should look at him, the way he has presented himself to the world. Mugabe is saying to the world ‘what you see is what you get, I am what I am, take me or leave me alone’.

And, he now has got a very powerful economic backer in the name of China, in the name of Iran and things like that. So whether the promises made by China and Iran will materialise, that doesn’t matter. It makes Mugabe confident enough to stay as long as he wants. You see, he has nothing to look forward to, Mugabe is more interested not so much in the survival of ZANU and the at the very least, the survival of the people of Zimbabwe, he is now more interested in his own future and that’s why he’s building himself this heavily fortified mansion and that’s why his entire rhetoric does not have within it the vocabulary of democracy, the vocabulary of free and fair elections. And, to that extent, the International Community also recognises that, and, it is to that effect that the International Community is now looking at maybe after Mugabe dies or maybe after Mugabe leaves office, you know maybe there might be some moderate elements.

One thing I can say for sure is that whoever comes after Mugabe is not going to be Mugabe, he’s not going to be a replica of Mugabe. He is going to feel the pinch of the position. He is going to feel the pressures. To the extent there is likely to be a rapid momentum towards sort of reforming, towards getting rid of the repressive Acts and things like that.

Violet: That’s my question exactly, that’s what I wanted to ask, Professor Mukasa. That according to Sydney’s analysis the International Community is more than willing or more than ready to give anyone in Zanu PF who is not Mugabe the benefit of the doubt. Now, can we ever have a reformed Zanu PF? Can a leopard change its spots, Professor Mukasa?

Professor Mukasa: No, a leopard cannot change its spots but a leopard can wear a jacket you know, and look different. That is quite possible. Now maybe the most important thing, and I should have mentioned this earlier. The International Community, and especially the United States, has put, has got a formula that can be a model for changing things in Zimbabwe. When they look at the opposition movement, they see a populous party, a party that has got a great deal of support at the grass roots level. But, when they look at the leadership, they look at a leadership that is very slow and reluctant to take hard decisions without going back to the people.

When they look at Zanu PF, they look at a party that has no support at all on the grass roots level, but, they look at a leadership that is very resolute; that takes tough decisions and stands by them. So, they are looking for a leadership that has got a combination of both; that ability to take a tough decision and stand by it on one hand, but at the same time being popular among the people. So, looking for that combination is quite a task that the International Community is looking for. That’s why they are looking for both, inside Zanu PF and outside Zanu PF to see if they can find that kind of a persona who combines those two things.

You see the problem with the MDC leadership and that has led to concern, is that, each time it wants to make important decisions they have to go back to the people all the time. Now, this is not the way the political system works, you know. There are times when you have to take your decisions by yourself and stand by those decisions. If you say ‘we are not going to participate in any more rigged elections’, you need to stand by your decision. If you say that ‘we are going to do one, two, three; we are going to protest, you must stand by that decision and actually go into the streets.

The late Reverend Martin Luther King, I mean, he had nothing to himself, but, he stood up one day in a Church in Birmingham and he said ‘look, we are going to take to the streets and I will be out there’. He actually told them the day he was going out to the streets, and as you probably know, the segregated South at the time was viciously oppressive of the Blacks. Any Blacks who tried to demonstrate where hunted down by police with dogs but Martin Luther King did take to the streets. He was jailed, and he said, ‘if we are jailed, let us all continue to do the work, let us all be jailed’. That is the kind of a resolute leadership, determined leadership that is missing in the Opposition movement. So it’s a combination of a bit of both that the International Community is looking for right now.

Violet: Sydney?

Sydney Musamvu: Just to go back to the issue which you have highlighted, the issue of building bridges and Mugabe; the Mkapa initiative. It should be stated that that is total deception because any movement within Zimbabwe would only start when Mugabe is off the plate. I mean this idea of the Mkapa initiative; those ideas have just been a card, which Mugabe has just been floating just to buy time. Any movement on Zimbabwe for the better will, and I repeat this, will only start, when Mugabe has exited. Because, what Mugabe sees, and I want to agree with Mukasa, what Mugabe sees is that he is the Alpha and the Omega, that beyond him there is no Zanu PF and there is no Zimbabwe. But this is a thing, which the International Community should ensure that these time-buying tactics of building bridges, Look East, whatever, the only meaningful change or progress towards change will only start when Mugabe is off. That’s the starting point.

In combination to this, it’s also about time when we have a leadership within the opposition, which makes decisions and takes risks. For the best or for the worst, Zanu PF what has made it defy odds and stay on using all the repressive tactics by hook and crook, whatever, is that, they have a leadership and which obviously for the majority of the time makes the worst decisions, but, decisions are taken. Mugabe makes decisions, worse or better, worse decisions, but, give it to him he makes decisions. It’s about time the leadership within the opposition forces in Zimbabwe have that stamina, have that staying power to take decisions. Anything short of that will make the opposition more lethargic like it has been in the past two years, and consign it to the history.

Violet Gonda: Some have said Robert Mugabe cannot be an agent for change. So can a solution come from the same regime that has brought so much misery and repression? To what extent is the situation in Zimbabwe truly a humanitarian crisis for it to deserve full international attention and what strategies can the opposition take to resolve the situation in Zimbabwe? Join us next Tuesday for the final segment with Sydney Masamvu and Professor Stanford Mukasa.

Audio interview can be heard on SW Radio Africa’s Hot Seat programme. Comments and feedback can be emailed to violet@swradioafrica.com

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