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Zimbabwe on slippery slope toward civil conflict
THERE was a time, in
the 1980s, when villages across Zimbabwe became hosts to young men like
Mukoma Zhuwawo. These were young men from Mozambique, having crossed
the border to eke out a living far from the raging war in their homeland.
They worked hard, these young men, tilling the land and herding cattle.
There was a time, too, in the 1990s, when we received young men and women who had travelled thousands of miles, hitch-hiking along the way, from the genocide in Rwanda.
Some of them became good friends when they joined university. They were decent young men and women who sought shelter and comfort in our home.
I remember speaking to our guests and asking about the conditions they had left behind. Their stories weighed heavily on our hearts. They carried many wounds of war - they had lost families and friends.
I remember wondering at the time whether we, too, could find ourselves in a similar situation. At the time, that Zimbabwe could descend into absolute poverty and utter chaos was far from the mind. It is not far anymore.
There has been a reversal of fortunes. The likes of Mukoma Tendai are now foraging in the Mozambican hinterland, perhaps Mukoma Zhuwawo is now his host. Young Zimbabweans are paying the last penny; they are using the last of their energies to cross borders into Botswana, South Africa and thousands of miles away into Britain, Australia, USA, etc.
But what are the chances that Zimbabwe could also descend into civil conflict, the type that made young men and women run from their homes in Rwanda, Somalia, Mozambique and the DRC into Zimbabwe?
The possibility is certainly no longer far-fetched. There are already situations we thought we could never have. I remember the wild laughs when visitors from Zambia in the late eighties brought the worthless Zambian Kwacha. Yet it never quite fell to the depths that the Zimbabwe Dollar has reached.
At this rate, that Zimbabwe could descend into civil conflict is therefore not beyond imagination. It is no longer something to be easily dismissed. There are number of reasons why the situation may deteriorate to the state of conflict:
Political Failure: Zimbabwe has failed and continues to fail to find a political solution to its problems. Normally, questions of leadership are decided through elections. This has, so far, not worked in Zimbabwe.
The other option, as we saw in Kenya earlier this year, is to submit to a negotiated settlement. This has not worked either and holds little prospects of success.
When politics fails and when politicians fail, this creates opportunities for military strongmen to take power. This will not allay fears of conflict; it will only heighten them.
Desperation: With political failure comes desperation and desperation causes people to think of crazy things. Desperate men develop very dangerous minds, especially when coupled with poverty and a paucity of options for survival.
Zimbabwe is reaching, if not so already, the Hobbesian state of nature where life is ‘nasty, brutish and short’. In this kind of world it is only the fittest who survive by virtue of force.
Big Men and Lords of War: Beyond and, indeed, within the large political party structure, the Zimbabwean political landscape is characterised by deep cracks along regional and tribal lines. This is an often understated reality but only because it is an inconvenient reality. Zanu PF’s unity, or what appears on the surface, is driven by the common desire to retain power and the mutual benefits accruing to rival factions. If the equilibrium that sustains the mutual interests shifts, there is likely to be chaos between the rivals.
For its part, the MDC (already divided since 2005) is united only by a common desire to drive out Zanu PF from power, perhaps less so by any common vision or ideology that would withstand the challenges of a post-Mugabe era. The different factional conflicts, which simmer under the surface like a volcano, could erupt at any time.
When it all breaks down, the Big Men, especially within or connected to the military who have their spheres of influence could easily mobilise impressionable and desperate young men to engage in a free-for-all brawl. There is a huge reserve of unemployed young people, the type that Frantz Fanon referred to as the Lumpen Proletariat which is vulnerable to manipulation and easily led.
Militarisation of Society: Violence has always been employed by the powerful to suppress the largely pliant majority of ordinary people. There is a growing pool of desperate young men who in their crucial teenage years who have been led to believe that violence is a perfectly legitimate way of resolving disputes. The then burgeoning middle class of the nineties has been severely eroded and in its place is the growing Lumpen Proletariat. They have very little to lose; nothing but their lives to protect and when it comes to the worst, who knows what risks they could take?
Add to this the large numbers of Youth Militias, better known as the Border Gezi Youths or Green Bombers, after their olive green garb, who have been indoctrinated in the virtues of the fist. They have killed, raped and assaulted at will without fear of the law’s enforcement. Then there is also the growing number of deserters from the military, as recently reported in parts of the media. These are poor young men who know how to use arms; they are desperate and who knows what they might do if they got hold of arms?
An unhealed nation: Zimbabwe has experienced a tumultuous history since it was founded as the colony of Southern Rhodesia in 1890. The culture of violence and impunity did not commence in the Zanu PF – MDC era as is often presented. Right through the violence of the colonial era, the bloodshed of the liberation war in the 1970s, to the unmitigated atrocities in Matabeleland during the 1980s, Zimbabweans have endured pain, loss and suffering. There are divisions and suspicions along the fault lines of race, tribe and class. The nation has not healed.
The post-2000 violence has undoubtedly received greater coverage and intensified the hostilities. People naturally want to account for what happened; they want justice and accountability in order to have closure. If there is no proper system in place, people could easily resort to chaos, where they take the law into their own hands, with devastating results. All these episodes in the history of the nation are festering wounds and chances are that they will burst, and when they do, it will not be a pretty sight.
We Zimbabweans have long thought of ourselves as a sophisticated nation. We got independence late in the day, long after our African counterparts had experienced the political and economic demise of the post-colonial period. We had our sunshine years when dark clouds hung over most of Africa. We never thought we would get to their sorry state. But they have moved on; they are moving on and we are where they were in their dark days, only worse.
If we still think civil conflict is unimaginable in Zimbabwe, perhaps it is time to wake up and smell the coffee. There are too many factors building up to create a very dangerous situation, largely because politics and politicians seem to be failing.
Now after the failure of the SADC Troika, we have to wait for the SADC Summit. The question is: what if that, too, fails? But even if it does succeed, there is little evidence of good faith and political will on the part of politicians to make things work. No amount of beautiful clauses, not even control of ‘key ministries’ will transform Zimbabwe’s fortunes unless the politicians invest sufficient trust, confidence in each other and act in good faith. Things could get much worse. Politicians have the responsibility to halt the slide on the slippery slope toward civil conflict.
Alex Magaisa
is based at Kent Law School, The University of Kent. He can be contacted
at wamagaisa@yahoo.co.uk
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