Mugabe needs incentives for reform, not sanctions

Mugabe needs incentives for reform, not sanctions

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By Mutumwa D. Mawere
(www.mmawere.com)

THE Russian and Chinese veto of a draft United Nations resolution sponsored by the US and UK governments to impose an arms embargo against Zimbabwe and an assets freeze and a travel ban on President Mugabe and 13 of his colleagues was as predictable as it was inevitable given the composition of the Security Council.

Naturally, President Mugabe must have been excited at learning that what he considers to be a plot by his Western detractors to effect regime change by any means necessary had failed.

Zimbabwe exposed the emergence of a new cold war at the world stage characterised by a contestation on what kind of values ought to dominate and inform global conversations on the role of the UN, in a world characterised by a lack of universally agreed standards on how to handle absurd situations as that prevailing in Zimbabwe where an incumbent is determined to cling to power at all costs.

It would have been naïve to have expected Russia and China to support a resolution whose long term implications on countries that do not fully subscribe to democratic principles and values could be devastating and poisonous.

If Mugabe was Chinese or Russian, there is no doubt that he would have been considered a hero of the national democratic revolution. It would be absurd to expect the Chinese and Russians to find anything wrong with what they generally consider to be a domestic housekeeping issue.

The Chinese and Russians may not fully agree with President Mugabe’s naïve approach to democracy, in that he allowed the situation to get out of hand by not successfully rigging the elections.

Former President Putin and now Prime Minister of Russia demonstrated that succession can be manipulatively managed.

The Chinese political system is not capable of creating a person like Morgan Tsvangirai and it is the case that they are not used to a situation where an incumbent -- deeply rooted in an ideology where citizen choice is not an operative word in political decision making -- is successfully challenged by a person supported by the West.

If Tsvangirai was a Russian or Chinese opposition leader, his fate would not lie in a negotiated settlement mediated by a foreign party.

By allowing the situation in Zimbabwe, President Mugabe is generally seen as having betrayed the cause and creating a dangerous precedent for the club of leaders who believe that equality, freedom and justice are luxuries.

The AU has not found any fault with the manner in which Mugabe handled the run-off election and it is evident that he enjoys the support of many in salvaging a situation that had gone out of hand.

Many of the people who support the notion of a government of national unity are fully convinced that Tsvangirai does not fit the profile of what they would like to see as a successor to President Mugabe.

In Africa, as it is in many developing countries, anyone who is disliked by the West easily enjoys the support of those that seek to change the global distribution of power and the foundation of the multilateral institutions.

The energy crisis has repositioned the Chinese and Russian brands.

The emergence of sovereign wealth funds as drivers of the global economy suggests that the US and Europe must revise the manner in which they relate to global issues including attempts to impose their value system in a world where the powerful always have their way.

Mugabe will argue convincingly that if the George Bush and Tony Blair could have their way in Iraq and Afghanistan, he should not be treated differently in terms of suppressing and intimidating his adversaries.

Although China and Russia have not proved themselves as reliable development partners to Africa, it is not clear how Zimbabwe will benefit from the showdown on the sanctions issue particularly if Mugabe wants sanctions to be lifted by the very countries who are opposed to his ways.

The fact that the targeted persons were all black, notwithstanding the fact that the economy of Zimbabwe is still sustained and driven by companies whose owners are domiciled in the West, leads many to question the motives behind the push for sanctions whose real impact has more to do with embarrassing President Mugabe and his colleagues than promoting real change.

The targeted sanctions have so far failed to produce the desired results. If anything, they have helped bolster President Mugabe’s assertion that Zimbabwe’s political and economic crisis is a creation of the West.

President Mugabe has not accepted that he bears any personal responsibility for the economic decay and he still holds the view that his continued leadership is indispensible to the survival of the nation.

It is instructive that Boniface Chidyausiku, Zimbabwe ’s Permanent Representative to the UN, greeted the blocking of the draft resolution by saying: “It's a reflection of the rule of law in the United Nations that nobody has monopoly on how things should be in the Security Council. Reason has prevailed. Adopting this resolution will set a dangerous precedent and will only serve to undermine the ongoing dialogue between the political parties, and risks worsening the political and socio-economic situation in the country, and will affect other countries in the region."

What may not be obvious to Chidyausiku is that it has been generally accepted that the rule of law in Zimbabwe is now a luxury for a few who believe that they are more Zimbabwean than others.

It must be accepted that the climate in Zimbabwe is now so poisonous that it will take more than negotiations of the three political parties to restore the country to normalcy.

Even the Chinese and Russians would agree that Zimbabwe needs to turn a new page and the future of the country lies in a renewal of leadership.
It is now universally accepted that losing will never be part of President Mugabe’s vocabulary.

He knows no limit when it comes to the energy and tactics he will use to stay in power no matter how distasteful.

President Mugabe is a natural warrior, never more energised than when faced with a towering foe. That is when he gets in mortal combat, adopting the archetype of an invincible warrior with the only testicular fortitude to be President of the Republic of Zimbabwe.

President Mugabe came into the March 29 election confident and in the 27 June run-off emotionally scarred by the loss.

He must be bewildered and deeply hurt by the personal attacks on him and his targeting as a “bad boy” when he thinks that he has been the best leader for Zimbabwe.

He has accumulated more than enough repressed anger to fuel him to go through a 1000-year war oblivious of the damage his reign has on the country he purports to love.

He remains unapologetic about his actions and must be angry to be accused of human rights abuses by the West.

He genuinely believes that sanctions must be imposed on Bush, Blair and Brown rather than on him.

To President Mugabe, war is an important metaphor. He believes that politics is war and that war means any instrument, any tool, any means to achieve a set end.

He is a fighter and regards the Security Council victory as a vindication of the justice of his methods.

Is Zimbabwe’s better day still possible with President Mugabe at the helm is a question that should occupy the minds of Zimbabweans rather than the Security Council.

The Zimbabwean case is an unusual one requiring a creative and innovative way to release the country from its current political gridlock.

President Mugabe had calculated after the negotiated constitutional amendments effected before the elections that he was going to win the election and would then proceed to amend the constitution with a parliamentary majority.

The current arithmetic of the composition of the new parliament does not give him much room to manoeuvre, however.

As a crafty politician, he will argue that any negotiation must start from the premise that he is the legitimate head of state and the March 29 election outcome had constitutional consequences including the run-off.

The outcome of the Security Council vote on sanctions may have the effect of giving Mugabe new hope that he can have his way with impunity.

If he cannot get the sanctions to be lifted by the West, there may be no real incentive for him to negotiate in good faith especially when he knows that any outcome that may leave him with unfettered powers may not be acceptable even to his friends in Africa.

Mutumwa Mawere's weekly column is published on New Zimbabwe.com every Monday. You can contact him at: mmawere@global.co.za
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