The MDC is part of the problem

The MDC is part of the problem

• Editor's Memo: Voters must demand better leadership

• Editor's Memo: Cut the chase, blame Blair

• Editor's Memo: Zimbabwe's future lies in voting

By Mduduzi Mathuthu

THE expression, ‘there are many ways to kill a cat’ has never found a better application, than to the developing situation in Zimbabwe.

The tragedy of our time is that those who seek to kill the cat, which has many lives, have failed to unlock these ‘many ways’, and continue to use moribund tactics which have spectacularly failed in the past.

On Sunday, Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara, the two men who lead warring factions of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) were arrested on their way to a rally in Highfield.

Rallies are temporarily banned in Zimbabwe, and before holding one, political parties by law need police approval.

Whether you agree with the law or not, the fact is that it is in existence, and when you wilfully break it, the police will take you down to fulfill the will of parliament which passed the law. (I have considered the other view of defying bad laws, by the way).

The weekend gathering had been organised by the church, and law experts have been arguing that it could not fall under the ambit of ‘political rallies’, which the police have sought to ban.

I had a discussion with an opposition MP this week, and I solicited his views about the MDC strategy and direction. In particular, I wanted to know if the strategy of trying to hold rallies, getting arrested and being in the headlines for a day or two had any potential, whether in the short or long term, to bring down Robert Mugabe’s tyrannical regime.

“These rallies are a pointless exercise,” he told me. “Any fool can be a political prisoner in Zimbabwe today, and the surest and easiest way of doing that is to call a rally.

“Right on cue, the police will arrest you and release you after two days. Then it dawns on you that you have returned to the political reality that was obtaining before your spell in the police cells.”

The MP was not celebrating the triumph of tyranny, but simply pointing out a simple reality that is soon forgotten in the stampede to register outrage at the treatment of Tsvangirai and others by the police.

Since rising to the leadership of the MDC in 1999, Morgan Tsvangirai, for all his efforts, has lost a presidential election and two parliamentary elections. Some claim the elections were rigged, others blame political violence, which is fine if you can prove it, and I have no reason to question the violence element which I witnessed first hand.

Losing two elections, in similar circumstances, is understandable, but three is too high a number to still be blaming the defeats on a pair of outstanding grievances.

A politician is as good as his strategy. It is about time that Zimbabweans who seek a New Zimbabwe started asking serious questions about the tactics that have been employed by the MDC, as the only real political challenge to Mugabe, particularly given the myriad of opportunities presented by Zanu PF’s poor handling of the economy.

One of the major political mysteries about Zimbabweans is why they remain indifferent when everything is crumbling around them. Tsvangirai has rolled out a few programmes like the infamous ‘final push’ and ‘winter of social discontent’ whose success hinged on massive public support. When that didn’t come, Tsvangirai wilted.

Following these disappointments, one would expect Tsvangirai and his strategists to come up with new ideas which do not risk people’s lives and play into the hands of the security services.

There is a possibility that the presidential elections could be held in 2008, and Mugabe is already making some noises about seeking a new term, which sounds ridiculous to the distant observer but is totally plausible.

With the MDC in its current state – divided and rudderless – it is quite fathomable that Robert Mugabe will win that election. The MDC, backed by its international partners, will once again wheel out the usual excuses about rigging and violence against its supporters which, as we have seen in the past, really doesn’t bother Mugabe.

Beyond ‘stay-aways’ and rallies, the MDC has no other strategy to beat the system. Tsvangirai, and now Mutambara too, are both culpable of leading their supporters down the garden path.

While others argue that rigging and political violence have kept Mugabe in power, I hold the view that it is Tsvangirai’s failure to organise and strategise that has brought us to where we are.

In 2004, I presented the same argument that I am making today (read), just in case some make the attempt to read these comments in the context of MDC internal divisions.

The MDC’s major enemy in past and future elections is the failure of its supporters and sympathisers to register, and vote. It’s that simple really.

Those who are familiar with Zimbabwe’s electoral process will know that rigging is not an easy thing, and someone trying to rig an election can only boost his candidate of choice by so many votes.

Instead of preaching to the converted in rallies in Harare’s townships, and getting arrested, beaten up and God knows possibly poisoned, the MDC leaders could devise other subtle strategies to mobilise people for future elections.

The idea that Tsvangirai can walk into State House on the back of street protests is as far fetched as the hope that Lengthens will be next year’s UEFA Champions League winners.

That can work in European capitals, but not in an African setting. In fact, it has not happened in Africa. Far weaker and less sophisticated regimes than Robert Mugabe’s survive through ruthless suppression of their opponents because they pull the military strings.

It is infantile imagining that Robert Mugabe would crack under the pressure of street protests, which we are yet to witness. Further, it is an elongated flight of fancy to expect a realistic effort by Zimbabwe’s neighbours to apply pressure on Mugabe to quit when he has won an election. But you can imagine that Thabo Mbeki and others would shift their positions, if Mugabe were to defy an electoral victory for the opposition.

This leaves the MDC with only two strategies: a negotiated political settlement, which inevitably means going to bed with Zanu PF elements in some transitional mechanism with no guarantees of forming a future government, or simply planning better for elections.

My interest is the latter option, which is the only democratic way of changing governments accepted worldwide.

The MDC has lost elections in the past because it simply failed to get enough people to vote for it.

In the 2002 presidential elections, there were 5.6 million registered voters. Of that figure, 3.4 million were in rural Zimbabwe, and the other 2.2 in urban centres. A total of 2.998.758 people voted, and Tsvangirai lost the count by just over 400 000 votes.

From those statistics, we learn that 2.6 million people stayed at home and did not vote. I have made the argument in the past that in a country with over 13 million people, it is a fair assumption that there are some 1.5 million more people who are not registered even though they are eligible to vote.

Political rallies, which are usually attended by supporters of those who call them, are the last thing that you can use in order to bridge the 400 000 shortfall in votes. I am not saying they are not of any help, but they are limited in what they can achieve.

An individual who has not bothered to go and vote is unlikely to attend a political rally. Similarly, a high school graduate who has just reached the age of 18, and is eligible to vote, is unlikely to choose a political rally over enjoying his new freedom or seeking employment.

That, for me, is what confronts the MDC and any opposition that seeks to beat Robert Mugabe in an election. With the economy in freefall, a lot of Zimbabweans are naturally receptive to the idea of change, only if they were made to feel that their individual votes do count in the bigger scheme of things, and are persuaded through attractive policies, that an alternative is better than the present.

Tsvangirai and Mutambara could take some pressure off themselves by throwing the initiative back at their supporters at cell level, from the villages of Silalabuhwa in Filabusi to Mutambara village in Manicaland.

A stealth operation run along the lines of census taking is another means of ‘killing the cat’ that the MDC has for far too long ignored. Printing political literature, then getting local foot soldiers to do door-to-door voter education and political conscientisation in every corner of the country is a far better option that getting arrested and then beaten in Highfield – all for nought.

Zimbabweans want to be personally engaged, and desire to feel they are part of the process of change. This cannot be achieved by rallies and boycotts.

Mathuthu is the editor of New Zimbabwe.com. He can be contacted via e-mail: mathuthu@newzimbabwe.com
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