Mbeki: Tsvangirai has good intentions

Mbeki: Tsvangirai has good intentions

SCATHING ATTACK: Moeletsi Mbeki has been critical of South Africa's softly-softly stance on Zimbabwe

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• Mbeki anger at Obasanjo betrayal

• Mugabe launches tirade against Obasanjo

• Mugabe was my hero - Tsvangirai

• Tsvangirai takes witness stand

• Tsvangiai calls for coalition

• Mugabe pulls Zim out of C'nwealth

By Trevor Grundy
29/02/04
ZIMBABWE may be sliding towards civil war as democracy activists lose patience with attempts to oust president Robert Mugabe from power peacefully, opposition leaders claimed Saturday.

Leading exiles who gathered in London yesterday to discuss the way forward said they would not be able to restrain their ‘Young Turks’ for much longer because of their desire to fight.

South African president Thabo Mbeki’s younger brother, Moeletsi Mbeki, who gave the keynote speech at the meeting, said his country’s policy of "quiet diplomacy" had been "a disastrous failure" and warned a civil war now appeared inevitable.

Confronted by a supporter of President Mugabe who suggested that the event was an MDC rally, Mbeki, rather sarcastically quipped: "If this is an MDC rally then I am happy to be part of it, there is nothing to be afraid of. I worked with Morgan Tsvangirai for 10 years and I know he has good intentions for Zimbabwe."

The leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, Morgan Tsvangirai, who faces the death sentence if convicted of treason over alleged involvement in a plot to kill Mugabe, is said to be losing grass-roots support within the MDC for not taking a tougher line.

The MDC warned Mugabe was simply waiting for the opposition to take up arms so he could "let loose" his troops.

But Dr Patrick Musami, a leading Zimbabwean exile who now lives in London, told Scotland on Sunday: "Zimbabwe faces civil war. I don’t think the leaders of the MDC will be able to hold our ‘Young Turks’ much longer. Some of them want a real war against Mugabe.

"He is becoming more and more paranoid. He believes his cooks are trying to kill him and he has now doubled the size of his personal guard. This is a man now capable of anything to stay in power," Musami said.

"We all hope Moeletsi Mbeki will be able to use his increasing influence to tell people in South Africa that Zimbabweans are suffering beyond belief."

One of Zimbabwe’s most prominent lawyers and human rights campaigners, Brian Kagoro, also said that even the most peace-loving party supporters "can be pushed too far".

"There’s a limit to which the leadership of the MDC will be able to retain its supporters," he said. "Unless South Africa, the Commonwealth and the international community comes to our aid, people in Zimbabwe will soon feel it’s their duty to defend themselves."

Asked if this would mean an outbreak of armed conflict, Kagoro replied: "We pray that will not happen."

A civil war in Zimbabwe would probably start off by being a conflict between Mugabe’s veterans and millions of ordinary, starving people.

But it could easily develop into a tribal war between the majority Shona tribe, traditionally supporters of Mugabe, in the north and east, and the Ndebeles, who have suffered at the hands of the government, in the south and west. There would be a real risk that such a civil war would spread to neighbouring countries.

‘He is becoming more and more paranoid. This is a man now capable of anything to stay in power’

The Ndebeles consider themselves part of the Zulu nation and would ideally like to break away and form a new country with the Zulus in South Africa.

Within a year of the overthrow of corrupt dictator president Mobutu Sese-Seko in the Congo in 1997, there were 17 warring armies, including troops from Zimbabwe, involved in fighting over the country’s untapped mineral resources.

Long-standing Africa watchers say the most likely successor to Mugabe would be a sidelined military commander from the days of liberation who had a following and a massive grudge against other factions. There are plenty of people like that in Angola, Mozambique, Zambia and South Africa. A civil war in Zimbabwe could easily spark off a Balkans-style tragedy with impossible to predict consequences.

Moeletsi Mbeki, deputy chairman of the South African Institute of International Affairs, said this danger meant South Africa should end the policy of using "soft diplomacy" to bring about peaceful change, saying that his brother’s strategy had gone "terribly wrong". "The reality is that Zimbabwe is drifting towards a civil war," he told the meeting in London.

"Zimbabwe is our neighbour. It’s in our interest for Zimbabwe to be stable and to be a prosperous society because right now, according to estimates, we have anything up to three million illegal immigrants living in South Africa."

In a speech that will anger the South African government - and particularly his 60-year old brother - he added: "Robert Mugabe and his ruling party Zanu(PF) have no interest in democracy. To try to keep Mugabe in power merely makes the situation worse and drives Zimbabwe towards civil war."

Dr Brighton Chireka, a Manchester-based official spokesman for the MDC, issued a plea to supporters to be patient. "War is the last thing we want. The people have had enough of that and yes, there’s a danger people will say enough is enough," he said.

"But this is what Robert Mugabe wants. He wants our young people to pick up guns. Then he’d have an excuse to let loose his soldiers on the starving people of Zimbabwe. We must not go down this path."

Recently hearings in Tsvangirai’s trial for treason ended after more than a year. If he is found guilty of planning to assassinate Mugabe and seize power ahead of presidential elections in 2002, he could be sentenced to death - Scotland on Sunday
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