A woolly presidential hopeful with a violent streak

A woolly presidential hopeful with a violent streak

• It's all all gloom

• A case of more tombstones than milestones

• Mugabe's Cheka is everywhere, defending the revolution

• The National Vision Document of Suspicious Verses

• Mkapa must deliver us from shadow of fist

• George Charamba: Mugabe's backward front man

• To be liberated from the liberators

• Just what is the meaning of change?

(READ MTHULISI'S PREVIOUS ARTICLES)

PRESIDENT Robert Mugabe’s political off-spring, Emmerson Mnangagwa, is an adroit eye-for-an-eye character who, by manipulation and stealth, has worked his way up the greasy pole and permeated every facet of life.

So ubiquitous is his influence that it is felt almost everywhere; in the mine shafts, maize fields, legal and business circles.

Needless to mention the security services where he built his political career and sharpened his administrative skills.

Indeed, no other politician, after Mugabe, is spoken about on serious socio-political matters like Mnangagwa. Never mind VP Joice Mujuru who is less of a politician and more of a social worker and a mere chatter box always as busy as a High School matron.

If the Zimbabwe Independent’s revelations that Mugabe spoke glowingly about Mnangagwa during his birthday interview is anything to go by, it may not be wayward to hazard that he is a strong contender for the First Person’s job.

According to the Independent, Mugabe did not only speak glowingly about his protégé but appeared to show signs of disappointment with the Mujuru camp whom he suspects to have thrown spanners into his 2010 project.

The plan had been intended to achieve a dignified exit for Mugabe under the guise of harmonising next year’s Presidential elections and the 2010 parliamentary elections. This was going to see Mugabe emerging as the Ceremonial President with immunity from any form of prosecution.

Mugabe has always been suspicious and perhaps fearful of a situation where his immunity would depend on his successor’s political goodwill. This got worse after the Tsholotsho saga and he went on to work out a comfortable exit method outside anybody’s patronage to minimise his vulnerability after office.

But that has hit a snag and he is back to the drawing board where it appears his berth is Mnangagwa.

However, pertinent questions arise. Why should he feel confident with Mnangagwa taking over? What sort of a leader is Mnangagwa likely going to be if he ever takes over and what course will Zimbabwe take under his stewardship?

As is well known Mnangagwa is Mugabe’s ex-secretary who later became his confidante as the Minister of State Security, in charge of the Central Intelligence Organisation which was the the nexus of the 1980’s genocidal campaign in Matabeleland.

It goes without saying that his interests in the suppression of the episode as a decider of Zimbabwe’s political course are intertwined with those of Mugabe. He will almost inevitably put a lid on the 1980’s murky doings of the government.

That will serve a double purpose of self protection and reciprocation. Under Mugabe, Mnangagwa got his name linked to several murky deals and far too many unhappy rumours which could have easily led to his political demise but Mugabe turned a blind eye.

Instead he retained him in all his cabinets.

Moreover, while Mugabe and Mnangagwa share skeletons, VP Mujuru's husband, Rtd General Solomon Mujuru, is seen distancing himself from the 1980’s atrocities. Besides, since his departure, Mujuru has very nearly lost touch with the goings-on in the army as it drifted into full-scale unprofessionalism and went to bed with the CIO, which is Mnangagwa’s project.

Even though he is most likely going to take a different course from that of Mugabe, Mnangagwa will do everything in his power to shield his master from the arm of the law. He will exploit the advantage of the slow pace of international justice delivery system meaning that by the time it gets to his master he would either be dead or the world would have been impressed by with his democratic deceptions and “good record’ on other fronts.

Already, he is undergoing personal rehabilitation meant to shackle this crude hard man image in preference for that of a benign, cordial and jocose man. That is why not very along ago he said, contrary to the public perception, he was actually "as soft as wool".

He is, therefore, the wool by which Mugabe will be hanged. Put simply, he will provide a soft landing, and wont touch the master.

But there are signs that he could go about a major de-Mugabenising agenda characterised by an ideological shift. Despite their mutual vulnerability, Mnangagwa seems to be having a different world from that of his master.

Never before have we heard him use the archaic populist and absolutist language of “anti-imperialism” and “sell-outs”. Occasionally, he gives in to reason and prefers a legal option as opposed to Mugabe who is generally quarrelsome and is largely given to sabre-rattling noises.

More than once as Minister of Justice, he spoke of a favourable legal framework for an improved working environment for the media which shows that he is reformist. As a businessman, he is certainly going to mend fences with the Western institutions and find a solution to some of Zimbabwe’s political problems. He will try to project himself as a level-headed fellow in tandem with modern conscience and with a fair grasp of universal economic diktats.

The prospect of him going this route could be sending shivers down Mugabe’s spine and could be at the center of the 2010 plan. Mugabe is a tiny man with a gargantuan ego who is as worried about his legacy as he is about his life.

Any future departure from his current populist thrust could prove that there is indeed a link between economic decline and the hollowness of his posturing. That will certainly deal a blow for the legacy he is trying to nurse.

Be that as it may, Mnangagwa is already drifting away. While he is a beneficiary of the Third Chimurenga project (The supposed empowerment of the downtrodden black people through an economic revolution), it is difficult to link him directly to the day-to-day hands on dirty activities of the carnage. He is one person who will most likely agree with the opposition on many issues.

And then there are worrying prospects.

Those who know him talk of wool that can turn into a razor wire. They talk of a man who, like a hangman, works in the shadows with backbone and drive to swiftly get done with those whom he hates by whatever means.

Mugabe, who wants to be known as a Zezuru, had this heavy reliance on people from “his” tribe, yet Mnangagwa (who want to be called Karanga) seems to be having a similar reverse attitude.

It is said he not only habours but openly declares his pathological hatred for certain tribes. In that light, he will work out political deal to bring close his tribesman, Morgan Tsvangirayi and leave out the Arthur Mutambara faction to suffer the label of “tribalists”.

After all, Mutambara is Manica, Welshman Ncube an Ndebele while David Coltart and Trudy Stevenson are white. These are the groups that have always been on the receiving end of Zanu PF ethnic politics.

This will have a double effect of quashing while at the same time leaving a semblance of the opposition. But more worrying are the rumours on certain horrific things he is said to be capable of personally executing.

Try as he may to pull Zimbabwe out of the shadows and to rehabilitate himself, he will have his sorry history to contend with.

Mthulisi Mathuthu is a Zimbabwean journalist and New Zimbabwe.com columnist. Views expressed here are his own. He can be contacted at: thuthuma@yahoo.com
JOIN THE DEBATE ON THIS ARTICLE ON THE NEWZIMBABWE.COM FORUMS