Winter, financial crisis, Obama… unstoppable?

Winter, financial crisis, Obama… unstoppable?

MAKING HISTORY: Barack Obama waves to supporters with his vice presidential pick Joe Biden after becoming the first black nominee for any of the two main parties to run for President of the United States on August 28, 2008

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WALKING around most parts of the State of Maryland, United States of America, one’s attention is caught by the provisions of nature. There are clear signs that the fall (autumn) season has set in as trees are slowly but surely shedding their leaves. The sunshine and green will soon be no more, a sign that its winter time and nobody can stop it.

Nobody can also stop what is happening in the heart of capitalism a thousand kilometers from here. New York is on fire with Wall Street recording the lowest ever stock market business in the history of financial markets.

By Friday (October 10), at least $872 billion investments had evaporated. There are fears that the stock market will get further knocks. This is already being felt worldwide as the ailing Wall Street has caused a contagious flu in all stock markets.

No one has stopped the collapse of some of the oldest and once prestigious companies in the USA. Who could have ever imagined the collapse of the American Insurance Company (AIG), sponsors of a big football club in England, and insurance giants Freddie Mac and Freddie Mae?

Companies also at the heart of the meltdown are financial giants Lehman Brothers Holdings, IndyMac Banking Corporation and Countrywide Financial Corporation and international commodity trading firm Refco. All these companies and 24 others are now under FBI investigations for alleged ‘improper’ financial trading.

Even a rescue package of $700 billion pumped in recently by the Federal government cannot save the situation. It appears as if nobody has a clue on how to use the money to rescue the collapsing companies, homeowners, health insurance and retirement savings.

Estimates indicate that about $2 trillion of Americans’ saving are in flames. Thousands of people have lost their homes and jobs, and everyone is worried about the financial situation. The high gas prices have fueled the fire.

Life in this part of the world revolves around the ownership of a home, having a good education, perfect job and comfortable retirement package, driving a reasonable car using few litres (gallons) of fuel and eating good, clean and nutritious food. This is American culture. It’s no longer the case as their country is experiencing one of the worst-ever crises and everything is blamed on President George Walker Bush.

The country is spending at least $10 billion per month to sustain the war in Iraq and this is not a joke for most Americans. They need their peace and security but most people blame Bush’s invasion of Iraq, instead of looking for Osama bin Laden and his Al-Qaeda group in Afghanistan and other factors, for the breakdown of the fundamentals of the economy.

Even the conservative Republicans don’t want to have anything to do with the man at number 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue (White House). To make matters worse, they blame him for even the harshest ever things which are beyond his control. The devastation caused by hurricanes Katrina in New Orleans and Ike in Texas have been laid squarely on his shoulders. Poor Bush. He has been in the office at the wrong time.

It appears as if the financial crisis could propel one man to one of the highest positions in the land – President of the United States of America – within the next few weeks. Talk of Barak Obama and his rival, John McCain, who referred to him as “that one” at a recent town hall presidential debate, would have sleepless nights. He is a politically astute fellow having already broken the record of being the first person of colour (read black) to be elected on a Democratic presidential ticket to fight for the White House. And now, he is breaking all the records like getting massive support from the working class, distressed citizens and various civic groups.

He even has general public support for choosing Joe Biden as his running mate in the election. The vice presidential candidate has stood his ground against former beauty queen Alaska governor Sarah Palin. In their deputy presidential debate, veteran senator Biden tightened the grip on the power game and romped to victory despite a good show from Palin, widely seen by most Americans as inexperienced. She has the beauty, but that’s where it all ends, the voters say.

Obama is hammering McCain and tying him to the Bush policies, an effort which appears to be pushing up his political ratings in most states. He has even managed to dismiss fears that he is green behind his ears on national security matters.

In two presidential debates so far, he has been smarter than his rival and displayed his knowledge on strategic military issues, foreign policy and other election matters such as the economy, Iraq war, energy and gas (fuel) and health care. Surveys show that voters make the economy their top issue in this election.

It still remains to be seen whether Obama would sustain his march to the White House. To most Americans, it’s not yet over for McCain even if he is trailing his rival in most states. According to many surveys or opinion polls, if Americans are to go to the polls this week, Obama would win by an overwhelming number of electoral votes. Some predict a 330 electoral vote win for Obama compared to McCain’s 175. A candidate needs 271 electoral votes to win the poll.

However, McCain can still spring a surprise. He is already trying to link Obama to his childhood neighbour William Ayers, a 1960s major figure in the radical group, the Weather Underground, that bombed the Pentagon and committed other acts of terrorism in the USA in protest against the Vietnam War.

Obama was about eight years old when these things happened and the McCain team has been warned by spin doctors and the media that reference to this issue may backfire as Ayers is now a professor at Illinois University and was in 1987 voted the Citizen of the Year in Chicago for his education work.

Every minute counts now and generally, Americans have certain voting patterns that may even stop Obama from having the world’s top-most political job. Race, gender, the weather, gaffes and other factors play a key role in voting for candidates.

Various scientists say voters in the USA can be separated into two groups, undecided and decided voters with the former not necessarily following party ideologues. The decided voters, writes Louis Menand in his article ‘The Unpolitical Animal’, are viewed by undecided voters as dangerous fanatics who follow party ideologues and vote blindly for their parties.

Menand cites social scientist Phillip Converse who questions the role of Americans in self-governance especially when taking into account that there are various factors that affect people before casting their votes for candidates.

In his article, ‘The Nature of Beliefs in Mass Publics’, Converse claims that 10 percent of the voters are ideologues with a reasonable grasp of party campaign ideas while 42 percent are non-ideologues voting on the basis of self-interest and not ideology. He further says 25 percent of voters are influenced by pocketbook politics like good or bad times and 22 percent vote for no specific reasons or issues.

For him, the inattentiveness of some of these voters means that some can vote on the basis of the good or bad weather (hurricanes, too much heat), food items and or the behaviour of candidates. Becoming too presidential, likable or slightly aggressive in the campaigns, may be costly or favourable to candidates.

Most social scientists also believe that electoral outcomes are influenced by voters who make arbitrary decisions who are influenced by party slogans, misinformation, sensational news, personal associations and gotchas. So far, there are no significant gotchas (slip of the tongue).

There are other scientists who believe that voting patterns are shaped by elite opinion with masses being manipulated by the media for electoral outcomes favouring the elite. Some voters, note the scientists, use gut reasoning when choosing candidates. These voters are likely to be influenced by television commentators, political activists and or their personal feelings. These are the voters who do not understand the surge in Iraq, turmoil in the financial markets and Obama and McCain’s American dream for change.

Such voters have other ideas and some candidates have almost been defeated due to their behaviour.

In 1976, presidential candidate Gerald Ford had a problem in Texas when he attempted to eat a tamale with the corn husk it is served on at a meeting with Mexican-Americans.

Michael Dukakis in 1988 looked ridiculous wearing a weird helmet when he went for a ride in a tank and George Bush was caught showing astonishment at the existence of scanners at supermarket checkout counters. Sociologists were fast to assess his behaviour on the likely impact it could have on his economic policies. Their assessments caused alarm among the Americans and true to their assumptions, the American economy is in tatters.

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