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Zimbabwe opposition running out of options
By
Lloyd
Msipa
THE ban of
political rallies in the most inhabited parts of Zimbabwe mainly the
cities was introduced by the Zimbabwe Republic Police Commissioner a
few weeks ago. The ban was issued under the Public Order and Security
Act (POSA) following recent violent clashes between protesters and the
police.
The Minister of Justice proceeded to confirm that the “restriction will remain where there is breakdown of law and order” and that “any (police) commissioner who fails to do that (maintain law and order) will lose his job," in Parliament. (The Herald, March 1st). When I read this, and I am sure a lot of people out there experienced a sense of dejavu.
Where have we seen or experienced this before? Senior citizens will be very quick to point out that this scenario is reminiscent of Ian Smith’s Rhodesia. Ian Smith’s Law and Order (Maintenance) Act of 1960 prohibited any political gatherings without the blessing of the authorities then. It suffocated any form of free expression by the citizenry of then Rhodesia. The refusal of the Rhodesian government to embrace any democratic reforms resulted in them tightening the laws to a point that they infringed on almost every basic right under the constitution of Zimbabwe.
The old adage that history repeats itself rings true in this instance. Faced with the restrictions of the Law and Order (Maintenance) Act of 1960, the pro-democracy and majority rule movements then left the country and organised themselves quite effectively in exile, and challenged the Ian Smith regime.
The pro-democracy movement of today in Zimbabwe, it seems, has not learnt anything from all this. When a government of the day controls all the institutions of repression it is foolhardy to continue to challenge it in its area of greatest strength. Uncoordinated street demonstrations will never overthrow a government.
The Zimbabwean government, through the executive, controls the Legislature and Judiciary. The current government will, of necessity, enact laws to preserve its existence. It is high time in my opinion that the pro-democracy movement takes a leaf from the Patriotic Front of the 1970s and consider other options if they are to remain relevant.
Following the incarceration of the leadership of both Zanu and Zapu, their operations were moved to neighboring countries. The Patriotic Front had bases in South Africa, Zambia, and as far afield as Dar es Salaam.
The chief reason for the travel sanctions imposed on Zimbabwean officials was the flawed or stolen elections of the year 2002. The international community argued that the opposition political movement was the legitimate winner of those elections. Considering that all the legal channels for expression have been curtailed, the pro-democracy movement members need to seriously consider their options in order to overcome. The continued participation in a flawed election processes contrary to popular opinion do not expose the regime; to the contrary it actually legitimises their continued claim to a popular mandate.
A government in exile, if properly structured and constituted, will almost get instantaneous recognition from Zimbabweans and the international community. This will have the effect of taking away Mugabe’s legitimacy. This new government will constitute a government in-waiting with a popular mandate to renegotiate a new Zimbabwe with international institutions and hence ensure rapid recovery in a post-Mugabe regime.
It is foolhardy for the pro-democracy movement to even contemplate that the Harare regime will fall in the absence of extra legal options. The current government brought the Ian Smith regime to the negotiating table through extra legal means, mainly the waging of the armed struggle and sabotage of institutions considered to be the pillars of the regime back then.
The waiting game being played by the opposition groups, hoping I would assume, that the main man will drop dead or be rendered senile will only serve to draw out this revolution. Never mind the fact that there are worse characters waiting by the sidelines, who hope to eventually take over the reins possibly with greater venom than the current incumbent. It is not a joke to say we might end up being another Somalia or Uganda.
In the absence of any major policy shift by the pro-democracy forces on the ground in Zimbabwe to remain relevant, it seems it might be worthwhile considering a third option that will bring salvation to our beloved country. A third if not more of Zimbabweans are outside its borders. Instead of Zimbabweans in the Diaspora attempting to enter politics by being satellites or being fund raisers of the pro-democracy movements on the ground, it is not far fetched to consider a political party formed from abroad.
If recent events in the satellite branches of the pro-democracy movements in the Diaspora, are anything to go by, then I would think this is a viable idea. This party will have all the advantages that those on the ground do not have, which include freedom of expression, freedom to raise funding for its activities, information dissemination and so on.
Whatever the modus operandi of the struggle, sacrificial lambs are required. The question that arises then is who amongst us will step up to the challenge. Who amongst us will be the radical leader to organise a formidable challenge with enough ‘umpf’ to shake Harare? Thus far, statements have been thrown around by those seeking this office that they are “prepared to die for the cause” or something to that effect. However nothing has come to fruition yet. Whatever happens the pro democracy movement is fast running out of options. Before we know it, we might have a military government in place. Remember, as they say, TIA (This Is Africa).
Lloyd Msipa is a lawyer and writes from London in the United Kingdom. He can be contacted at lmsipa@virtalukandco.com
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