Leadership contests define 2008 electoral fortunes

Leadership contests define 2008 electoral fortunes

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By Kuthula Matshazi

WHILE there are almost negligible chances that a divided Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) could win in the harmonised elections that are seven months away, it is interesting to see how an equally divided Zanu PF will manage a win.

One quick reason that would be advanced by those opposed to Zanu PF is that since it is the party in power it, will rig the elections. This explanation, however, falls short in explaining to us how Zanu PF fails to rig in strategic places such as Harare where, for symbolic reasons they need to be seen winning.

Harare being the capital city where the central administration of the country is based would ideally be an area Zanu PF would want to control. Matabeleland is critical for national unity. After the early 1980s political tensions and the subsequent unity accord, the government has been eager to be seen as healing the wounds and also bringing the marginalised province into the mainstream.

Although Zanu PF is divided into two camps, it is lucky that it has a candidate in President Robert Mugabe that can still hold the party together and still move it forward as a unit. Zanu PF is reported to have two camps namely that of Vice President Joyce Mujuru and Minister of Rural Housing Emmerson Mnangagwa.

On the other hand, the MDC does not have that sort of person who can hold the party as a unit while the fight for leadership positions still continues.

Leadership battles have a debilitating effect. No one leader can be a contestant and judge at the same time and expect an uncontested outcome. This is not to imply though that such scenarios of a leader who is both contestant and judge might not occur and bring a positive result as a general rule. It might occur but successful examples are uncommon. The MDC example demonstrates this point well.

The two MDC leaders, Morgan Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara, are pushing forward the process of leadership while carrying their baggage of vested interests. The problem with such a scenario is that when the two leaders clash in their views, almost everything else is affected.

Equally, when the leaders are of one mind, there is progress. We saw that in the MDC after the March 11 clash of the opposition with the police. The two MDC leaders came together in solidarity and vowed to create a united opposition that would take Zanu PF out of power.

For a while, it seemed that the MDC was going to create a united front. Of course, they had not indicated that they were merging, but probably this would have been a step towards the reconciliation of the two sides.

Along the way differences occurred and part of the main problematic issues were around leadership positions and the whole unity effort came down crumbling like humpty dumpty.

If Zanu PF did not have a third candidate, who in this case is President Mugabe, it could have faced a similar predicament. However, President Mugabe has helped Zanu PF remain standing amid the fractured units. Not only is he helping to keep the party together, he is also able to keep the opposition weak and defeated.

It is my belief that President Mugabe could indeed retire by December as Dr. Ibbo Mandaza suggested in the British Broadcasting Corporation programme World Debate.

But the circumstances of President Mugabe might not be what many people think: that he is being pushed out. I doubt that there is anyone who can be able to push out President Mugabe in Zanu PF right now. And sure, he is not invincible but experience has shown us that he is much in control even though some elements might want him gone by now because they figure out that it would be to the advantage of their leadership aspirations.

I think Mandaza meant that by December this year, there would be a consensus within Zanu PF of who might be the new leader after the party would have elected him/her under a generally accepted system.

Meanwhile, the message that President Mugabe is next year’s Zanu PF candidate for the harmonised elections is a trump card on its own because it would dampen the spirits of the opposition especially the MDC who have found him to be a formidable opponent. That way it gives breathing space to Zanu PF officials to tear each other apart in their bid to come up with a solid restructured leadership.

So, in what appears to be Zanu PF chaos currently, there might come out an even stronger party that is geared towards the current and future challenges. The leader that emerges in the Zanu PF December congress would be the one with solid support among Zimbabweans and one who has a clear chance of winning the elections for Zanu PF. And that is the person that President Mugabe would be happy to hand over the reins to.

The flip side is that Zanu PF might fail to reach a consensus on the candidate and in which case Tsvangirai’s nemesis President Mugabe would go on to represent Zanu PF in next year’s elections. That would really be a nightmare for Tsvangirai!

Unfortunately, the MDC has not been able to organise in much more like Zanu PF where there is a third candidate to rule. While Mutambara has been busy trying to build a party of the future, short circuiting President Mugabe’s rule and getting into power quickly has obsessed Tsvangirai.

Tsvangirai appears to have the majority appeal within the MDC ranks. But the fatality of this blind following is that he is myopic because he is looking at immediate individual gratification and failing to articulate current challenges and linking them to the future.

Ironically, his myopia has seen many opportunists flock to him hoping for immediate benefits, which have unfortunately not been forthcoming. Now with the possible defeat of 2008 and the lack of leadership and strategic vision, Tsvangirai’s faction would degenerate into disillusionment. As other members entertain their ambitions to replace a leader who would have clearly failed, there is likely going to be chaos.

Tsvangirai will defend his turf while the new hopefuls push for leadership positions, causing a nasty battle that results in factions emerging and hopefully not the start of the disintegration of that faction.

From whichever angle one analyses the situation, things are not looking good for the MDC factions going into the 2008 elections. MDC stands to lose the elections because of its failure to manage its leadership crisis. Zanu PF would win because it would manage its leadership transition effectively and the presence of a third candidate would insulate it from the ravages faced by MDC.

Kuthula Matshazi is a Zimbabwean journalist writing from Canada. Visit his blog at http://kuthula.blogspot.com
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