Tsvangirai, beware the curse of history

Tsvangirai, beware the curse of history

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By Caesar Zvayi

‘‘EVERYTHING is going according to plan,’’ MDC-T secretary-general Tendai Biti told reporters soon after one marathon talk session ended in a stalemate at the Rainbow Towers a few weeks back.

Many were left wondering what Biti was talking about particularly as President Mugabe had said: ‘‘The talks went on well, but in the wrong direction.’’

It is now apparent that Biti was referring to the game plan the West drew for his boss, Morgan Tsvangirai. The plan has been clear from the beginning: Take the talks from Zimbabwe to Sadc forums, frustrate them and refer the process to the African Union and finally the United Nations.

There, Tsvangirai’s handlers hope to declare a humanitarian crisis to facilitate one of three interventions. Firstly, they could press for fresh elections to resolve the impasse in the hope that the sanctions have wrought enough damage to spawn the protest votes Tsvangirai badly needs to oust President Mugabe.

Botswana’s un-elected bachelor president, Seretse Khama Ian Khama, has since led the charge on this score in his recent state of the nation address.

The second option would be declaring a humanitarian crisis to warrant external intervention under the UN’s responsibility to protect programme.

This may explain the new Human Rights Watch report, released ahead of Sunday’s summit, that urged Sadc leaders to either get ‘‘tough’’ with President Mugabe or refer the talks to the UN.

The third and most likely route, however, in light of the activity on the Botswana border and reports of British-trained MDC-T militias would be acts of banditry aimed at facilitating the invoking of section seven of the UN Charter to facilitate invasion.

This may explain Tsvangirai’s threat of "regional instability" if Zanu-PF "refuses to loosen its illegitimate grip on power" that he uttered as he addressed a Press conference at the Sandton Convention Centre on Sunday.

As said in earlier instalments, the clues to the game plan lie in Tsvangirai’s insistence that the broad-based agreement signed between Zanu-PF, MDC-T and MDC is a ‘‘Global Political Agreement’’.

This ‘‘global’’ rhetoric fits in with the mantra that the problems in Zimbabwe lie between Harare and the world and not Harare and London, and have to do with the neo-liberal discourse of human rights, democracy and civil liberties.

This is what the Rhodesian-born British Minister for Africa, Asia and the UN, Lord Mark Malloch-Brown, has been harping about ad nauseam since the abortive talks began 19 months ago.

For instance, Malloch-Brown recently told the BBC that: ‘‘For many years, President Mugabe could argue it was him against Britain and the US, today it’s him against the world as there are neighbours, many African countries, who have come out against him."

It comes as no surprise, then, to learn that Tsvangirai says he will not listen to Sadc and would rather have the AU handle the matter. The AU, if ever Zanu-PF and Sadc are daft enough to indulge him, will not be his last stop.

From there, he will claim the AU has failed and should refer the matter to the UN where he hopes his handlers would call the shots to effect the illegal regime change they failed to achieve over the past eight years. It was clear from the beginning that Tsvangirai was never committed to the talks as they basically took the rug from under US and British government attempts to have Zimbabwe on the agenda of the Security Council as a threat to international peace and security.

Readers would remember that after the harmonised elections, the Anglo-Saxon alliance tried, on several occasions, to have Zimbabwe on the agenda of the Security Council, but each time they came unstuck in the face of opposition from progressive states, among them South Africa, China and Russia.

These countries argued Zimbabwe was not a threat to international peace and security, which is why the Anglo-Saxon alliance may have mooted the idea of the militias the British have been training in Botswana.

The militias are supposed to embark on acts of banditry to force the State to respond militarily, after which the lionesses in Washington and London would rush to defend their cubs claiming Zimbabwe threatens regional peace and security.

On the back of claims of a humanitarian crisis, they hope progressive Russia and China would go along with the plans.

But judging by the pair’s stand on policy, I do not see that happening, which is why Tsvangirai may live to rue the opportunity he has passed that would have seen him join Government at a higher level.

But, expecting Tsvangirai to read the mood in the region would be akin to expecting honey from a fly. In case Tsvangirai does not realise it, regional leaders have lost patience with him, and I do not see how President Mugabe would continue entertaining such a hapless, spineless stooge, who cannot make his own decisions. The talks have died and history shall record that the talks aborted because Tsvangirai chose to listen to his Western handlers over progressive African voices.

Tsvangirai has all but fluffed the semblance of acceptability he had gained in the region that saw him, a mere opposition leader, sit in Sadc forums with bona fide heads of state and government.

It is fortuitous that the DRC conflict was on the table at the summit because it mirrors the fight in Zimbabwe.

Laurent Nkunda and Morgan Tsvangirai are just different episodes in a long-running saga of Western destabilisation.

The West wants Tsvangirai to morph into a warlord, and with Botswana seemingly amenable to hosting the United States’ Africa Military Command, the destabilisation of the region would be complete.

We have all seen what US military presence has done to the Great Lakes Region, the Horn of Africa and the Middle East; the same conflagration can engulf hitherto peaceful southern Africa if we tolerate shameless puppets like Tsvangirai and Nkunda.

Tsvangirai would do well to learn from the fate that befell Jonas Savimbi after he withdrew from the presidential run-off that pitted him against the incumbent president, José Eduardo dos Santos, in 1992.

After neither of the four main candidates in that historic Angolan poll garnered the 50 percent plus 1 vote required for an outright win in the first round, the Western-backed Savimbi — who came second to Cde dos Santos — withdrew from the run-off claiming electoral fraud and resumed fighting.

He also turned down the vice-presidency he was subsequently offered after the 1998 ceasefire, opting to continue with his insurgency. He fell by the sword on February 22, 2002, and Angola moved on.

History, they say, repeats itself.

Morgan should be wary of the curse of history.

Zvayi is a columnist for the Herald newspaper. He is based in Harare
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