Is Zimbabwe headed for conflict?

Is Zimbabwe headed for conflict?

MUGABE: In power for 26 years

• Zanu PF wants 2010 presidential poll

• How Mugabe wants to be remembered

• Mugabe ouster could spark civil war - Chissano

• Mugabe to cleanse Zanu PF of 'crookish' officials

• Mugabe says succession debate 'nonsensical'

• Zanu PF night of long knives in Masvingo

• Trust in Mugabe rapidly declines - survey

• Mugabe says Zanu PF will choose successor

• Mugabe succession off agenda at congress

• Mugabe to extend term

• Ethnic camps plays complex role in Mugabe succession

• Sikhumbuzo Ndiweni: Who will succeed Mugabe

• Mugabe: 'I want to rest'

• Mugabe: 'I'll retire when my term ends'

• Mugabe may stand for another term

• Meeting Mr Mugabe

• 'I am not seeking re-election' - Mugabe

• Mugabe out by December - Shamuyarira

• Mugabe out in 5 years

• Mugabe birthday sparks retirement talk

By Staff Reporter

ZIMBABWE'S former Information Minister Professor Jonathan Moyo has warned that Zimbabwe could descend into an "explosive situation" if President Robert Mugabe's succession is not skillfully handled.

Speaking on BBC current affairs programme, HARDtalk, aired last week, Mugabe's former spin doctor warned that the internecine struggle to succeed Mugabe could spark a "Hobbesian war of everyone against everyone."

His warning comes barely two weeks after former Mozambican President Joaquim Chissano said Mugabe's ouster could end in "a big situation of violence that could lead to internal war."

Mugabe, 83 next February, has previously indicated he is serving his last term and wants to retire. His term ends in 2008, but his Zanu PF party's pokesman Nathan Shamuyarira told state radio last week that the presidential poll could be postponed to 2010 to bring it in line with parliamentary elections.

Political commentators see this as an attempt to give Mugabe a further two years to position his preferred successor.

Asked if infighting had escalated in Zanu PF, Moyo said: "Indeed, and this is not surprising. I suppose after 26 years of controversial rule (and) now with Mugabe on the exit door one way or the other there are serious problems around his leadership but for the fact that he has had a very strong hand in controlling the party.

"He is the symbol of the party, the party is him and when it's dawn, everyone becomes very insecure and factions develop."

Moyo, a former university lecturer and political scientist whose own five years in government were not without controversy, insisted that civil strife was the worst case scenario in the succession battle.

He said: "It depends on what is done by various interested parties, first and foremost Zimbabweans, then the ruling party itself and others in the region and internationally. It depends on what they do now.

"There is a possibility of an explosive situation that would create quite some serious problems...I wouldn't say civil strife but quite serious conflict, then conflict can take all sorts of directions.

"But the conditions for violent conflict if the transition is not handled properly are there because this is now happening against background of an unprecedented economic meltdown and when you have political tension fuelling economic collapse, prospects for a peaceful transition diminish."

Mugabe's ruling party has been riven by division in recent years with two distinct factions emerging -- one led by retired army general Solomon Mujuru and another by Emmerson Mnangagwa, for a long time thought to be Mugabe's chosen heir.

Mnangagwa launched an unsuccessful bid for the vice presidency in 2004, his cause championed by Moyo. Mujuru's faction carried the day and his wife, Joice, claimed the vice presidency.

The events were followed by recriminations and several of Mnangagwa's loyalists were suspended or expelled from the party. Moyo quit Zanu PF and stood as an independent parliamentary candidate in the south-western district of Tsholotsho and won, beating both the Zanu PF and MDC candidates.

Moyo said there was no love lost between the main contenders, but added that Mugabe could yet decisively shape the transition.

Moyo said: "From now on, it will depend on what happens to Mugabe, but more importantly what Mugabe does. These people indeed can find themselves in a Hobbesian war of everyone against everyone, but there are also possibilities that those who are influential in the military and in the security establishment and who are playing a much more decisive role now might avert that because Zimbabwe is that kind of society."

Chissano suggested two weeks ago that forcing Mugabe out of power could spark a civil war. Chissano took issue with what he called a Western obsession with term limits for Africa's presidents, and was critical of calls to force Mugabe's departure after 26 years at the helm.

"If Mugabe steps down, what will happen then?" asked Chissano, whose country has historic ties with neighbouring Zimbabwe, forged during their wars against white rule.

"What is happening now is bad, but it could be worse -- a big situation of violence could lead to internal war," he said.

Political journalist, Dumisani Muleya, said while Moyo appeared to have qualified his statements, Chissano's intervention was "not based on any sound reasoning or philosophy".

"At what point will Mugabe go and there will be no trouble and at what point will he go and there is trouble? Chissano's motivation appears to be a desire to see Mugabe remain at the helm than a genuine attempt to introduce intelligent analysis to the discourse. He is just giving Mugabe ammunition to say why he should not leave than analysing the situation," said Muleya, news editor of the privately-owned Zimbabwe Independent newspaper.

Muleya said there was too much self interest within Zanu PF, and any eventuality would be decided by how the internal political dynamics within Zanu PF are handled.

He said: "There is clearly too much self interest in Zanu PF which normally happens when the harsh realities of power are at play. This, I believe, is the context in which we can locate the fears of those who think brute force and Machiavellian tactics are going to be deployed, probably leading to conflict of sorts."

Mugabe has previously suggested he will retire in 2008, but has not been categorical about the decision -- a point which analysts say means that the veteran Zimbabwean leader is keeping his options open.

There has been speculation over the past year that Mugabe might hang onto power until 2010 or retire in 2008 but only under a law allowing his chosen successor in Zanu PF to hold power for a couple of years before facing the opposition in a 2010 general election.

Political analysts say Mugabe and Zanu PF fear an electoral challenge amid a deepening economic crisis many blame on his government, and might hope a delay would allow time for improvement in an economy struggling with the world's highest inflation rate of over 1,200 percent.

The opposition charges that Mugabe's government has robbed it of victory in three major elections in the last six years, and says his government has become more repressive in the face of the economic meltdown.

Mugabe denies the charge, and in turn accuses the MDC of being a puppet of Western powers seeking to overthrow his party over its controversial seizures of white-owned farms to redistribute to landless blacks.

You can listen to Professor Jonathan Moyo's interview with BBC HARDtalk online, CLICK HERE.

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