| The best Zimbabwe news site on the world wide web |  |
Tsvangirai to ride storm, but party weak - analysts
By Cris Chinaka
ZIMBABWE opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has seen the party he founded split in two by bitter feuding, but analysts say he is likely to ride out the storm as the main challenger to President Robert Mugabe.
Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) lurched into its deepest crisis since it was formed in 1999 after party rebels rejected his call to boycott November elections for a new Senate which critics saw as part of Mugabe's push to consolidate his power.
Tsvangirai and his followers stayed away from the polls but the opposing faction took part, leading to a rancorous dispute over who really represents the political opposition in Zimbabwe.
Analysts say that while the dispute has weakened the MDC -- long seen as the only viable challenge to Mugabe's 25-year grip on power in Zimbabwe -- it is too early to write Tsvangirai off.
They say he is likely to emerge as the leader of the largest MDC faction at a national congress in February expected to see the formal split of the party.
"While the MDC has suffered as a result of this feud, Tsvangirai's image as an opposition figure, his image as a man trying to win power from Mugabe has been enhanced by the attacks still coming through the government's propaganda machinery," said John Makumbe, a political scientist at Harare's University of Zimbabwe.
"The more they focus on him, they more they are telling the people that they see him as a threat," Makumbe, a longtime critic of Mugabe's government, told Reuters.
A senior western diplomat in Harare concurred, saying Mugabe's government still clearly regarded Tsvangirai as its main opponent -- and that many western governments were also betting on the veteran politician to emerge victorious.
"For us, he is still the leader of the opposition and we don't think the situation will change," he said.
Tsvangirai ordered the boycott of the November 26 poll on the grounds that it would lend legitimacy to a government that he accuses of election rigging and increasing political repression, charges echoed by Western governments.
His internal opponents, led by MDC Secretary General Welshman Ncube, said the party had to participate to remain viable and fielded a number of candidates, ending up winning seven of the 66 seats in the upper chamber of parliament.
Since the election antagonism between the two factions has grown as each side seeks to persuade party members, foreign diplomats and the general population that they represent the party's future.
To the glee of Mugabe's governing ZANU-PF party, they have played out their differences in the media, trading insults, "suspending and expelling" each other and electing different provincial party officials ahead of the February congress.
"It's very clear now that these people are not going to be able to work together, and every day they are demonstrating this fact," Makumbe said.
Ncube's faction has branded Tsvangirai a dictator, saying he sought to overrule internal democratic processes to order the poll boycott. But its legal appeal to get a court endorsement of its "suspension" of Tsvangirai was thrown out by the High Court.
On the other hand, Tsvangirai -- backed by the leaders of the MDC's powerful youth and women's leagues -- labels his adversaries as sell-outs working for Mugabe's benefit.
Political analysts say the feud has effectively split the MDC into two parties, both of which are fighting for the MDC brand name amid a deepening economic crisis seen in severe food, fuel and foreign currency shortages and rising unemployment.
Lovemore Madhuku, chairman of political pressure group National Constitutional Assembly, said while Tsvangirai appeared to have the numbers on his side, the real test would be to see who is able to capitalise on growing national frustration.
"The people of Zimbabwe are looking for a leadership that is able to articulate their views and organise with them how they can realise their political and economic programmes - and that is the challenge that is here and that is ahead," he said.
The Harare-based diplomat said Western governments had not reached any final public verdict on Tsvangirai and the MDC, and were waiting to see what happens after its party congress.
"Obviously
no one is saying that they (the MDC) are what they were before these
problems. They do look weak but at the same time no one is buying this
story that they are dead and buried," he said - Reuters
JOIN
THE DEBATE ON THIS ARTICLE ON THE NEWZIMBABWE.COM FORUMS
newsdesk@newzimbabwe.com
All material copyright newzimbabwe.com
Material may be published or reproduced in any form with appropriate credit to this website