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Analysts back Annan's Zimbabwe plan
By Staff
Reporter
THREE leading Zimbabwean political commentators
have put a damper on the planned mass protests by the opposition against
President Robert Mugabe's government, insisting more effort should be
directed towards bringing Mugabe to the negotiating table.
Economist, John Robertson, political scientist, Jonathan Moyo and analyst Brian Raftopoulos warned Tuesday that mass action against the Zimbabwe government was bound to fail.
Their warnings came on the same day the Archbishop of Bulawayo, Pius Ncube, blasted opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai saying he "is big talk but has no vision."
Archbishop Ncube added: "It is hopeless: There is no one to inspire confidence."
In a special radio interview on SW Radio Africa on Tuesday, Raftopoulos, Moyo and Robertson occupied common ground, suggesting that the intervention of United Nations secretary general Kofi Annan now appeared the best hope for a political breakthrough in Zimbabwe.
Moyo said: "The mass action strategy is not a new one, it has been tried many times before and we know what the results have been. And indeed we must remember that is the strategy which the state prefers because it believes it has a tried and tested method of dealing with it.
"Clearly, the government has been daring the opposition to take those kinds of steps and we know what the response would be -- a ruthless, vicious response which will see the unleashing of the state machinery.
"I however, doubt that the way forward requires mass action. I think everybody can see that we have reached the end of the road and what is going on right now are the politics of the end game. And it is a question of forging new alliances, working with new international actors and understanding for example what is it that Annan could and would want to achieve in the Zimbabwean question, and then play some role as the opposition.
"There are possibilities. From what I understand, Annan has said he would like to come to Zimbabwe if the Zimbabwean government is prepared to give him something to take to the international community, a deal, and in return he would want to come to Zimbabwe with a package from the international community and I think various actors can contribute to that product."
Annan confirmed recently that he plans to visit Zimbabwe, but his officials have not said what would be on the agenda when he meets Mugabe.
However, diplomatic sources have briefed journalists that part of the bargaining could include demands for President Mugabe to step down to allow for a transitional government, leading to new elections.
Moyo added: "The government is responding to the consequences of the economic collapse. We now for the first time in six or so years have a possibility of having Mugabe himself striking a deal to secure his own legacy with key actors in the international community through policy change, and we can even have a group within Zanu PF which is reform-minded securing a deal with the international community through change."
Robertson said: "I would very much rather see the forces for change coming from the top much as they did in South Africa. Even in the Soviet Union, the change did not come from mass action but from the enlightened thinking of the leaders who realised that they really had to make dramatic changes to avoid what might have become mass action, and might have become much more serious.
"We are really looking for statesmanship at the top, and I believe that is not going to come until we do get some involvement from the international community, (including) the United Nations, but I think much more tellingly if we can get that support from Mr Mbeki (South African President)."
Raftopoulos, recently an adviser to Tsvangirai, said Zanu PF needed a way out of the crisis with the same urgency as all the opposition forces ranged against it.
He said: "Zanu PF do have an opportunity now to take the situation forward, if they don't, I really fear for what kind of future opposition is going to emerge. I think the situation will deteriorate even more if this opportunity (United Nations option) is not taken and we are going into a cycle of increasing repression on the basis of increasing crises within the economy with possibly all kinds of new elements emerging. The ball is in Zanu PF's court and I think they have a real responsibility to ensure this situation doesn't deteriorate."
Tsvangirai has promised a "short, sharp programme of winter discontent", but the analysts said such action would not succeed as the opposition neither had the capacity nor strategy.
Moyo, a former information minister who is now an independent legislator for Tsholotsho, said when mass action finally happens, if it does, it would be determined by economic factors rather than a set programme of the opposition.
He said: "The fact that we now have a new situation related to the economic collapse or meltdown of the economy means that there may be some consequences from that which the government has not bargained for, including the possibility of spontaneous mass action which would be much more serious than a calculated programme. It could lead to chaos and anarchy."
Moyo said he believed Zanu PF was now " probably much more divided than the opposition, not only because of the succession squabbles but also because of the economic breakdown and the social breakdown that is taking place in our country."
He said: "I think that is an opportunity which is yet to be explored or exploited by the opposition."
Robertson said President Mugabe's government was "completely out of its depth", and warned that further economic decline should be expected until "political solutions" were found.
He said: "The government doesn't have the resources any longer to deal with this crisis. Unfortunately, it has constantly sought economic answers to what are basically political problems. We have seen a massive decline in levels of production, a total absence of investment into the country, a massive flight of skills from Zimbabwe and the country now has no credit rating internationally.
"Although we might have raised a bit of money to pay for fuel by pledging exports of certain minerals, we have come nowhere near solving any of these problems because the political hang-ups still keep the people who could help the country at arm's length, so I think the answer has to lie in the political arena not an economic one."
Zimbabwe's inflation,
already the highest in the world, hit a new record of 1,193.5% for the
year to May as the country faces its worst economic crisis in history.
Readers with Windows Media Player can listen to the SW Radio interview.
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