Who will succeed Mugabe?

Who will succeed Mugabe?

By Sikhumbuzo Ndiweni

ZANU PF will be holding its elective national congress in December 2004. It is this congress, it is hoped, that will settle the critical succession issue within this organization. This congress will have prodigious implications for Zimbabwe, the sub-region, continent and its ramifications will also be felt in the international scene. The resumption of negotiations between ZANU PF and the MDC will be embarked upon in earnest in view of the forthcoming congress. These negotiations are not likely to be concluded prior to the outcomes of the congress. President Robert Mugabe has been in elected political office for 24 years.

During this time he presided over the first democratically elected government in Zimbabwe after the struggle for liberation. He has forged national unity in the country and provided that country with a competitive educational system, amongst other achievements. The emergence of the MDC has somewhat presented the ruling ZANU PF with its worst Achilles hill that has taken issue with the land reform process, alleged abuse of power and has also quarreled with outcome of the 2002 Presidential Elections. The effects of these contestations has been the paralyzing impact on the economy of the country as evidenced by sanctions, shortages of foodstuffs and deficiency of foreign currency. It will be these insufferable socio-political considerations that will face ZANU-PF in this decisive congress.

It is within this unsavory context that the succession debate for a new head of ZANU–PF and by implication, the future President of Zimbabwe finds expression. Owing to its liberation credentials ZANU-PF is constituted by various interest groups that are vying for control and eminence. These includes the army, war veterans, traditional leaders, peasants, workers, bourgeoisie, youth and the women constituencies. Added to this scenario is the fact that ZANU-PF is a by-product of a marriage between two political parties i.e. ZANU and ZAPU with varying political traditions and ideological affinities. The interest groups that constitute ZANU- PF are also manifest in the former ZAPU. Tribal affinities and regional sensibilities also play themselves out in this marriage since the Shona constitute the base for the former ZANU and the Ndebele are seen as a citadel for the former ZAPU. These tribal differences are complicated by the fact that within Shona people there are the majority Karanga and the dominant and influential Zezuru from whom Mugabe comes from who are also positioning themselves for the control of soul of the organization.

"There is a feeling amongst the former ZAPU members that the opportunity has now arisen for their turn in the leadership of ZANU-PF"

SIKHUMBUZO NDIWENI

There is a feeling amongst the former ZAPU members that the opportunity has now arisen for their turn in the leadership of ZANU-PF. In the light of the aforementioned ZAPU candidates will include the current Vice President and septuagenarian Joseph Msika whose presidential candidacy may be ruled out owing to his age and health. Another candidate could be John Nkomo, the phlegmatic current national Chairperson of ZANU PF and the 3rd most senior member of the Party. Other candidates could include, former Home Affairs Minister and ZIPRA supreme, Dumiso Dabengwa, current High Commissioner to South Africa, Simon Khaya Moyo and Politburo member Joshua Malinga. By virtue of holding the National Chair position and having served in the Presidium, Nkomo is seen as better placed as the next successor. Dabengwa yields considerable support from the army and the war veterans. Moyo is seen as the natural product of Dr Joshua Nkomo under whose leadership and guidance he earned his pupilage and political acumen. His rapport with the political forces in South Africa also stands him in good stead. Malinga, the former Mayor of Bulawayo, on the other hand, is seen as a confirmed tribalist that always seeks to cater for the self-interests of the Ndebele people. This stance has endeared him towards the business community especially in Matabeland region, however, his chances are infinitesimal.

Possible candidates for succession within ZANU PF included inter alia the following, Emerson Mnangagwa, Secretary for Administration and Speaker for Parliament, Sidney Sekeramai, current Minister of Defense, Didmus Mutasa, Secretary for External Relations, Innocent Goche, Minister for Security, retired General Vitalis Zvinavashe and Simba Makoni. Mnangagwa is viewed as the heir apparent since he is seen as a confidante of the President Mugabe. Their relationship dates back during the struggle era. He wields considerable influence in the army, security apparatus and is seen as an astute politician who will not undo the gains of the land reform process and thereby betray the liberation struggle. When he lost the parliamentary seat to a novice from the opposition the President quickly appointed him Speaker of Parliament. This attests to the trust and support that he enjoys from the President who could not countenance losing him from parliament. His shortcoming is the fact that he is viewed with skepticism seeing that he was seen as a driving force of the post independence onslaught on ZAPU base in what came to be known as the infamous Gukurahundi (wild storm) where the ZAPU supporters were brutally pulverized between 1983-87. The fact that he is a securocrat and somewhat pugnacious may become a limiting strength. The fact that the UN regarded him as one of the people who unduly profited from the illicit diamonds in the DRC will limit his chances. His interest and knowledge of the economy is scant. A new leader will have to re-invigorate investor confidence and he may not be fit for such a task.

Sekeramai enjoys the support of the Zezuru clan that controls much of the economic activity in the country. He is an ally of the first Commandor of the Zimbabwe Defense Forces, General Solomon Mujuru. The latter is a strong political power broker whose influence in the army is only second to that of Mugabe. The confluence of the army support through Mujuru and Dabengwa on Sekeramai and the added support of the ruling business elite makes him a critical contender. He is seen as flexible and of intellectual disposition which accounts for his diplomatic astuteness. His role in the Gukuhahundi as the then Minister of Security constitutes his major limitation.

Didmus Mutasa is a longest serving Secretary for Administration of ZANU who feels that time has come for a leader to be elected into a critical position from Manyika people. Edgar Takere, the former Secretary General of ZANU who broke away to formed the ZUM party (Zimbabwe Unity Movement) comes from Mutasa ‘s Manyika clan. That Tekere has been welcomed back into ZANU PF army provide more impetus to Mutasa‘s political ambitions. The fact that Innocent Goche does not command visible grass roots support could be his nemesis. In fact the likelihood is that he might give his support to Sekeramai.

General Zvinavashe commands the support of the crucial Masvingo province. He has inherited the largely Karanga constituency from the late Vice President Simon Muzenda. His struggle credentials are impeccable with approval by the war veterans. Those candidates that are regarded as dark horses includes Simba Makoni, Jonathan Moyo, Patrci Chinamasa and the only woman candidate Oppah Muchinguri. The forthcoming congress of ZANU scheduled to be held in December will have to finalize this contentious issue. Such finalization will strongly impact on the acceleration and finalization of the negotiations processes currently underway between ZANU and MDC. This finalization of the succession debate will afford President Mugabe an opportunity to concentrate on matters of the state while the Party political issues will be delegated to the new leadership.
Sikhumbuzo Ndiweni is a former ZANU PF Secretary for Publicity in Bulawayo Province while co-writer Thami Ka Plaatjie is a former Secretary General of the PAC and Senior Manager for Strategy and Policy Co-ordination at the NDA
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