THE Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) has slashed water allocations for power generation at Kariba Dam to 23 billion cubic metres (BCM) in 2027, warning of a potentially dry season due to El Niño conditions.
The allocation, which will be shared equally between Zambia’s ZESCO Limited and Zimbabwe Power Company (ZPC), gives each utility 11.5 BCM, down from the combined 36 BCM allocated for 2026.
In a statement by acting chief executive officer Peter Kapinga on Wednesday, the authority said the decision was informed by the 33rd Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-33), held in Swakopmund, Namibia, from August 25 to 28, 2026, as well as localised forecasts from meteorological agencies in Zambia and Zimbabwe.
SARCOF-33 forecasts below-normal rainfall across much of the central and southern Southern African Development Community (SADC) region between October 2026 and March 2027, linked to El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific that are expected to strengthen.
Southern Zambia and much of Zimbabwe are expected to experience below-normal rainfall early in the season, with the dry conditions forecast to extend to most areas between January and March 2027.
The reduced water allocation is projected to leave Lake Kariba with a closing level of 476.80 metres above sea level by December 31, 2027, with 5.83 BCM of usable water remaining, equivalent to 9% of live storage.
However, the authority said the combined allocation for 2026 remained at 36 BCM, up from the initial 30 BCM, following substantial inflows during the 2025/2026 rainfall season.
As of October 14, 2026, ZESCO’s Kariba North Bank had 3.53 BCM remaining from its 18 BCM allocation, representing 19.66% of its allocation. ZPC’s Kariba South Bank had 6.13 BCM remaining, equivalent to 34.09% of its allocation.
The ZRA projects that Lake Kariba will close 2026 with 16.24 BCM of usable water, equivalent to 25.10% of live storage, available at the start of 2027.
Despite the reduced allocation for next year, the authority said current water levels were significantly better than those recorded in 2025.
As of October 14, 2026, Lake Kariba stood at 480.65 metres above sea level and held 23.77 BCM of usable water, representing 36.68% of usable storage.
This compares favourably with the same date in 2025, when the lake stood at 477.34 metres and held just 8.25 BCM of usable water, equivalent to 12.75%.
The authority said it would continue monitoring water utilisation daily and coordinating with the two utilities through joint technical committee meetings to ensure compliance with allocations and facilitate timely responses to changing conditions.
“The Authority will continue to manage the shared water resource diligently and communicate any related operational decisions as further assessments are completed,” the statement read.
